Friday, October 4, 2013

Week 6 Predictions

Week 5 was a busy week in college football and in this writer's home.  Having a newborn really gets in the way of writing a college football blog.

You know what happened to the last guy that tried writing a blog while his wife was changing dirty diapers? 
"My penis is over there, your honor." 
So yeah, I missed a week, sue me.  

Let's talk some football.  

Top 25 Action

Georgia State @ #1 Alabama - The line on this game is 'Bama -55.5.  For those of you non-gamblers out there, that means 'Bama needs to beat GA State by 8 TD's to cover the spread.  The only question is really how long will "Bama HC Nick Saban keep his starters in the game.  This has the potential to be the biggest blow out since the 80's glam rock scene...

I'm not even sure how men get their hair blown out that big.  I also wonder at what point Brett Michaels started going bald and had to resort to the head band.  Lastly, this song still rocks... 
'Bama will be without safety Ha Ha Clinton-Dix after he's been suspended indefinitely for a violation of team rules.  An Alabama strength coach was put on leave for allegedly providing money to Dix. For this game, the suspension won't matter, but when can we expect Dix back?  In the SEC, "suspended indefinitely" means "suspended until a tough game", so expect Dix back for the game against LSU on Nov 9th.

55.5 - 0 Roll Tide! 

#2 Oregon @ Colorado - The Ducks average margin of victory thus far is 49 points.  You heard me.  The Ducks are beating teams by an AVERAGE of 49 points!  That's ridiculous.  The Ducks will most likely be without lightning fast RB De'Anthony Thomas as he's currently in a walking boot due to an injured right ankle.  Oregon shouldn't miss him too much as they have way too much firepower on offense for the Buffaloes to handle. 

Speaking of the 80's, the last time the Colorado program was relevant was just about that long ago.  
It was literally a generation ago, 1990 to be exact, Colorado beat Notre Dame 10-9 in the Orange Bowl to claim a national championship. 

59-13 Oregon 

#3 Clemson @ Syracuse - Syracuse plays their first game as a member of the ACC against a Clemson squad making their first trip to up state New York.  Syracuse has knocked off some ranked teams under the dome in the past few seasons...

The Orangemen knocked off WVU in 2011 and up ended Louisville last season.  Could they pull the upset of the season and knock off the Tigers? 

Clemson QB Tajh Boyd has started shaky the past few games but settled in and found his favorite target WR Sammy Watkins for multiple touchdowns.  I can see Clemson starting slow and 'Cuse keeping this game close for a half.  If the Tigers are sloppy they'll be in trouble in front of a fired up 'Cuse crowd.  If Clemson plays like they are capable of, this game won't be close. 

45-24 Clemson

#4 Ohio State @ #16 Northwestern - The Wildcats get dynamic RB Venric Mark...
...back for their biggest game of the season.  Ohio State is riding a 17 game winning streak and looking to win against Northwestern for the 29th time in their last 30 meetings.  ESPN Game Day will be in Evanston for this game, which means all the famous alumni will be back in town for the game.  And by all the famous alumni, I mean this guy... 
Ohio State will get QB Braxton Miller back for this game.  QB Kenny Guiton has more than held his own as the starter in Miller's absence and will be ready to step in should Miller falter.  

The Wildcats average 249.5 yards rushing per game and OSU is only giving up 84 yards rushing.  Something has to give.  This game will come down to Northwestern's ability to stop Braxton Miller from running wild.  If they can contain him they can keep it close.  

Despite the hype, I don't see this game being that close. 

45 - 24 Ohio State 

#15 Washington @ #5 Stanford - We're going to find out in the next 3 weeks if Washington is a contender or pretender as they face #5 Stanford, #2 Oregon and #22 Arizona State in consecutive weeks. If UW goes 3-0 they'll be in the top 10 and a potential national title contender. If UW can go 2-1 against that schedule they'll be in the thick of things in the PAC 12.  If they go 1-2 a mid tier bowl is their most likely destination.  If they 0-3 HC Steve Sarkisian may take another look at that USC job that just opened up.  

Stanford will be out to get revenge for a 17-13 loss last season where the Cardinal were held without an offensive touchdown.  QB Kevin Hogan add a dimension to the offense that they didn't have in that game as he's mobile enough to hurt the Huskies with his feet.  

The Cardinal will have to find a way to contain RB Bishop Sankey, one of the best backs in college football. 
Last year the Huskies gave Sankey the ball 40 times and pounded Stanford on the ground.  Huskies QB Keith Price has improved since last season and will be counted on to provide a more balanced offense.  

This should be a great game that may very well come down to the last possession. 

30-27 Washington 

#6 Georgia @ Tennessee - The Bulldogs won an epic contest against LSU last week and are primed for a let down on the road this week. Georgia will be without star RB Todd Gurley and struggled to run the ball with Keith Marshall last week.  QB Aaron Murray has come into his own this season, showing poise and hitting open WR's.  Given the chance, he can pick apart the Vols D.  

On the flip side, the Vols have been in Arrested Development since firing HC Phil Fulmer...

They've lost to both ranked teams they played this year and let Sun Belt foe South Alabama hang around for the entire game last week.  Even though the Vols won 31-24 they didn't have the killer instinct good teams have when playing lesser opponents.  

The Bulldogs have that instinct. 

38-13 Georgia 

#7 Louisville @ Temple - Temple is now 0-4 after losing to perennial FBS cellar dweller Idaho last week. Temple is facing a very real possibility of going 0-12.  Their best shot at a W is against Army or UConn.  The Owls are bad to awful in every aspect of the game.  The fact that now Miami HC Al Golden was actually able to win some games and stabilize that program is nothing short of a coaching miracle.  

This is the type of game where QB Teddy Bridgewater should put up 300 yards and 4 TD's in the first half and relax the second half.  Maybe he can take a tour of Lincoln Financial Field since he may very well be starting for the Eagles next year. 

52-7 Louisville 

#25 Maryland @ #8 Florida State - If you ask Siri who her... his?  its? .. favorite college football team is, this game has your answer...

The Terrapins are 4-0 and are coming off a bye week.  Their 37-0 defeat of WVU looks even better after WVU knocked off Okie State last weekend.  So are the Terrapins contenders in the ACC or is a two horse race between FSU and Clemson for the BCS berth?  

Meanwhile the 'Noles have been steamrolling lesser opponents.  This will be FSU's toughest game so far this season.  QB Jameis Winston could throw his hat into the Heisman ring with a good game, but he may want to save his best game for his meeting with Clemson in a couple weeks. 

As long as FSU doesn't get caught looking ahead, they should win this one comfortably. 

38-17 Seminoles 

#10 LSU @ Mississippi State - LSU hung with Georgia all game and QB Zach Mettenberge played arguably his best game in an LSU uniform but the Tigers came up just short losing 44-41.  Defense was thought to be a strength of the Tigers, but Georgia exposed some flaws both on the ground and through the air.  

The Bulldogs have been up and down all season, beating up on bad teams and losing to good ones.  They beat Troy 62-7 a couple weeks ago and the up and down trend should continue against an LSU squad looking to take out some frustrations.  

45-14 LSU 

TCU @ #11 Oklahoma - The Sooners snapped a 7 game losing streak to the Fightin' Irish last weekend and picked off 3 passes en route to a 35-21 win.  QB Blake Bell seems to have settled into the starting role throwing for 232 yards and 2 TD's and adding 59 more yards on the ground.  The Sooners D did give up 232 rushing yards, including an 80 yard TD.  The Big XII is shaping up to be a 3 way race between Oklahoma, Baylor and Texas Tech.  All of those teams have some flaws and it's possible we have a 3 way or even 4 way tie atop the Big XII come December. 

For now, the Sooners must take care of TCU before facing bitter rival Texas in the Red River Shootout our whatever bullshit PC name they call it now.  

TCU HC Gary Patterson's name has been floated as a possible successor to not-yet-fired but definitely-on-the-hot-seat Texas HC Mack Brown.  Patterson has built the Horned Frogs into a consistent winner even if this year's squad is not quite as good as previous years.  The Frogs have taken care of business against lesser opponents but have yet to score a W against a good team.  Could the Sooners be reveling in their win over Notre Dame and/or looking ahead to Texas?  This has all the makings of a trap game! 


30-27 Horned Frogs

#12 UCLA @ Utah - The Bruins won this game 34-27

Kentucky @ #13 South Carolina - The Wildcats have 1 win and that came against a bad Miami (OH) team.  HC Mike Stoops is putting together nice recruiting class, but he has not put together a nice team on the field this year.  As always, the Wildcat fans are counting the days until basketball season.

The Gamecocks escaped Disney World with a 28-25 win over UCF.  RB Mike Davis proved a he can carry the load on offense, rushing for 167 yards and 3 TD's.  The Gamecocks are beat up, with DE Jadeveon Clowney nursing bruised ribs and QB Connor Shaw uncertain to play with a shoulder injury.

This is the perfect week for a game against Kentucky.
29-13 South Carolina 

Georgia Tech @ #14 Miami - The 'Canes are off to their best start in nearly a decade and are looking to score their 5th consecutive win over the Yellowjackets.  QB Stephon Morris seems to have progressed from erratic to consistent this season.  He played through an ankle injury last week and put up a season high 222 yards and 2 TD's.

The Yellowjackets run HC Paul Johnson's triple option offense but were held to only 160 yards rushing last week by VA Tech in a 17-10 loss.  If Miami's D can limit the damage on the ground, the 'Canes will be 5-0.

27-17 Miami 

WVU @ #17 Baylor - Baylor is AVERAGING 69.7 points per game this season.  You read that right, Baylor is averaging what some NCAA basketball teams can't manage.  Of course, the level of competition has been sub par.  WVU is not exactly known for defense, but at least they're a BCS conference team.

WVU scored a big win against then #11 Okie State last weekend and will look to continue that momentum.  If WVU can win this one, they'll be right in the thick of things for a Big XII title.  Stopping the Bears O is going to be a daunting task for the defensively challenged Mountaineers.

56-31 Baylor 

Arkansas @ #18 Florida - The Gators lost QB Jeff Driskel for the year but that may not be a bad thing as the offense was stagnant with him at the helm.  In steps JR QB Tyler Murphy who can run and throw.  Murphy amassed 192 total yards and 2 TD's in the win against Kentucky, his first career start.  Things get a bit tougher against an Arkansas squad riding a 2 game losing streak.

The Razorbacks have had success running the ball but are dreadful through the air. It will be a long day for Arkansas as Florida boasts one of the best D's in the nation.  Unless Florida completely self destructs, their D should be able to dominate and send Arkansas to their 3rd straight loss.

24-10 Gators 

Minnesota @ #19 Michigan - Michigan's uniforms are one of the most iconic in college football.  With all the alternate uniforms popping up these days, the Wolverines have kept to their tradition of Maize & Blue.  And let's hope offensive lineman Graham Glasgow has no say in designing alternate uniforms...
That dude really likes cats.

After a big win against Notre Dame, Michigan has squeaked by with wins against lesser opponents the past two weeks.  As they begin Big Ten play, QB Devin Gardner will have to show more consistency.  Thus far he's looked like a star at QB and the like he has no business playing QB in the same game.

The Golden Gophers beat up on some crap teams to start the season and lost Iowa, the first decent team they've faced.  The Gophers have no passing game to speak of and will need to get it done on the ground against Michigan.  This game will depend on which Devin Gardner shows up.  If Michigan turns it over and allows Minnesota to hang around it will be a long night in Ann Arbor, but I expect the Wolverines to score the W.

34-17 Michigan 

#20 TX Tech @ Kansas - The Jayhawks, much like Kentucky, are just biding their time until basketball season starts.

The Red Raiders are damn good with a top 3 passing attack and a 33 year old head coach in Kliff Kingsbury that's brought an energy to the program. And he's apparently the most eligible head coach in the country..
but that still doesn't mean shit if he can't win game, and he's doing just that. Kingsbury was the OC for Texas A&M last season and helped Johnny Football become Johnny Heisman.  As an encore, he's returned to his alma mater and turned walk on freshman QB Baker Mayfield into one of the best QB's in the country.

So what's next for Kinsbury?  Dating a model?  An actress?  Maybe a pop star?
Jessica Simpson and Kliff Kingsbury
Been there, done that. Allegedly. We do know Jessica has a thing for QB's from Texas.

I'm not sure where Kingsbury goes from here, but a win over Kansas is a good start.

45-10 TX Tech 

K State @ #21 Okie State - After hanging over 55 points on two bad teams for a couple weeks in a row the Cowboys offense cam crashing back to earth against WVU of all teams. The Cowboys were sloppy and their D couldn't stop WVU when it counted.

K State just isn't the same team without former QB Collin Klein at the helm.  JUCO transfer QB Jake Waters has been up and down and just doesn't have the skill players around him to make K State a legit contender in the Big XII this year.  That said, K State is known for winning games they shouldn't, so you can never count them out.  I still think Okie State is over rated.  This is my upset special of the week.

34-27 K State 

#22 Arizona State @ Notre Dame - After their loss to Oklahoma last weekend, Notre Dame players headed directly into their locker room, neglecting to stop and sing the alma mater with the student section, as is tradition in South Bend.  That was a surprise to everyone but HC Brian Kelly, who apparently changed tradition 2 years ago and claimed the players no longer sing the alma mater after home losses.  I guess nobody ever noticed since Notre Dame did not lose at all at home last season?  Either way, the alumni and students were not happy with him, and more importantly, they are not happy with Notre Dame's 3-2 record.

The Irish are now unranked and have surrendered 41 and 35 points in their losses.  They now face an Arizona State squad that hung 62 on USC in a game that was the proverbial straw that broke the camel's back.  After their beat down, USC HC Lane Kiffin was fired.  I guess USC AD Pat Haden felt that since the NCAA wouldn't reduce their sanctions, the next best thing he could do for the program was get rid of Kiffin, and just about all of USC fans would agree.

The Sun Devils should be 2-2 but were saved by the refs in the Wisconsin game.  It's not often that Notre Dame is an underdog at home, but Arizona State is over rated.

27-21 Notre Dame 

#23 Fresno State @ Idaho - Fresno State is lead by QB Derek Carr, little brother of former first overall pick and Houston Texans tackling dummy David Carr.  Carr, already married with a child, seems to be the anti-Manziel.
Derek Carr and wife Heather. 
The Bulldogs are off to a 4-0 start and will be favored in every game for the rest of the season.  They're looking to become the latest BCS buster from the Mountain West conference but only a Charmin soft schedule will prevent them from doing so.  They've already won arguably their two toughest games this season against Rutgers and Boise State.  Only an upset stands in the way of a perfect season, but even a 12-0 record may not be enough for a BCS bid after the embarrassment that was Northern Illinois in the BCS last season.

Idaho is bad.  Not as bad as Temple, but bad.

45-7 Fresno State 

#24 Ole Miss @ Auburn - Ole Miss officials have apologized for the behavior of a group of freshman football players who used "borderline hate speech", aka derogatory terms for homosexuals, directed at student actors during a University theater production of "The Laramie Project."

However, that headline buries the lead.  The investigation should focus on why Ole Miss football players are actually attending class and the boosters reaction to such a travesty.

But seriously folks, this is Ole Miss we're talking about.  For every American flag you'll find a Confederate flag not far behind.  Former plantations dot the country side.  The state has a long and sordid history of racial intolerance that's still inexplicably a source of pride for some in the state.  So progress at Ole Miss is measured differently.  Even though yelling homosexual slurs are fellow students is intolerant and immature, it sure beats a race riot.  Progress.

The Rebels were shut out by Alabama last week 25-0.  The Rebels were held to 205 total yards and couldn't do anything on the ground.

Auburn lost to LSU 35-21 last week.  Auburn was down early but never gave up, but they had no answer for LSU RB Jeremy Hill.  Both teams should be able to put up some points this week, but I'll give the edge to Auburn at home.

34-30 Auburn 

Games of Note

Penn State @ Indiana - Penn State got an early Hanukkah gift from the NCAA during their bye week in the form of reduced sanctions.  The Nittany Lions got 5 scholarships back for the 2014 cycle, giving them 20 total.  They are also now allowed 75 players on scholarship starting next season before returning to a full 25 scholarships and 85 total in 2016.  While USC fired their coach and continue to whine incessantly about their sanctions as an excuse for their poor performance on the field, PSU HC Bill O'Brien never complains and continues to win despite the sanctions.  The only people that seem to be upset about the reduction are opposing fan bases who hoped to gain from Penn State's loss.  Which is an ironic commentary on the culture of college football.

On the field, PSU's D couldn't stop Central Florida in a home loss two weeks ago.  The offense seems to still be figuring it out, at times looking almost unstoppable, and at other times going three and out and looking like it's their first spring practice.

We know Indiana can score, but can they defend?  The Hoosiers gave up 41 to Navy and 45 to Missouri, both losses.  Neither of those offenses has a weapon like WR Allen Robinson or a QB as talented as FR QB Christian Hackenburg.  This game should be fun to watch as both teams will be able to put up points.

41-31 Penn state 

Florida International @ Southern Miss - If it's bad football you like, this is your game of the year!  Both teams are 0-4 and the Eagles are riding a 16 game losing streak.  Both squads are atrocious on offense and even worse on defense.  If it were possible for both teams to lose, these two teams would find a way to do it.  

24-17 Southern Miss