Wednesday, November 21, 2012

Week 13 Predictions

It's Thanksgiving week!  Time to stuff our faces until we burst and then sit on the couch and watch football while trying not to fart in front of our in-laws.

The conference realignment started early this year.  Maryland has officially become the 13th member of the Big Ten. Rutgers was thrown a life preserver to get off the sinking ship that is the Big East and will become the 14th member of the Big Ten.

The Big Least is all but done.  San Diego State and Boise State are now in talks with the Mountain West to rejoin the conference and bail on the Big East.  With the Big East no longer holding their automatic BCS bid, they have little appeal over any other conference now.  Starting in 2014, the lion's share of the BCS money will go to the SEC, Big Ten, Pac 12, Big XII and ACC.  The remaining "Group of Five" conferences, Big East, Conference USA, Mountain West, Sun Belt and MAC, get the scraps. So effectively, the Big East is no longer a power conference.  A more lengthy explanation can be found HERE.

What dominoes will fall next?  UConn is the leading candidate to head to the ACC, and the Big East will have to dip into Conference USA or the MAC to find a suitable replacement to join their crippling league.  With a territory that now spans coast to coast, and few traditional rivalries to promote, will the Big East even survive the latest realignment?  And what will that mean for the members that haven't even joined yet?  Will the ACC bleed more teams?

My guess is we're slowly but surely heading to 4 super conference made up of 14 - 16 teams.  The SEC, Big Ten, Big XII and PAC 12 would be the upper tier of college football, with the remnants of the Big East, ACC, Mountain West, Conference USA and MAC left to form their own second tier leagues.  If this can somehow move us toward a college football playoff then I'm all for it.

Tomorrow is Thanksgiving, and we can all find something to be thankful for...

Top 25 Action

#1 Notre Dame @ USC - What a role reversal from the pre-season when USC was ranked #1 and Notre Dame was outside the Top 25. As if this game was not hard enough for USC without QB Matt Barkley and a leaky D, now their backup Freshman QB Max Wittek has guaranteed a win.
Backup QB's should be seen and not heard, unless you play for Lane Kiffin, then you spout off about how great you are while your team is 7-4.  The Irish are looking for their first title since Lou Holtz was roaming their sideline. The Irish D is still one of the best in the country, but the Irish have the SEC working against them.  If Notre Dame wins, there will only be 1 SEC team in the title game, and as we know, the BCS prefers two SEC to play for the title every year.  Can the Irish avoid the upset?  The Irish have been lucky rather than good all year, and I don't see that luck running out against a terrible game day coach like Kiffin.  24-10 Irish.

Notre Dame is thankful for: Pitt's kicker blowing the game winning FG in OT
USC is thankful for:

Auburn @ #2 Alabama - It only took one week for the Tide to roll back into the National Title game. After their psuedo scrimmage against Western Carolina, the Tide gear up for the Iron Bowl this week! The Tide are in the driver's seat for a National Title game if they win two more games.  This week against Auburn and against Georgia in the SEC Championship, which the SEC refers to as the National Semi-Final game.  The Tigers... man, what more can be said about a 3-7 squad that's going to go 0-8 in the SEC two years after winning, er, buying, a National Title?  Has there ever been a more epic collapse in college football?  The Auburn peak to pit is truly astounding.  It'll be interesting to see where HC Gene Chizik lands after he's fired.  34 - 0 'Bama.

'Bama is thankful for:
Auburn is thankful for:

Yellow Jackets @ #3 Bulldogs - Georgia is also two wins away from playing for a National Championship.  They must knock off the in state rival Yellow Jackets and then play 'Bama in the SEC Championship.  Bulldogs QB Aaron Murry has been mum on whether or not he'll take his talents to the NFL next year.  Tech would like nothing more than to ruin the Bulldogs season, and every team behind Georgia in the BCS rankings will be Yellow Jackets fans this weekend.  This game will come down to how well the Bulldogs D can stop the Yellow Jackets triple option offense.  31-21 Georgia.

Georgia is thankful for: QB Aaron Murray - he's finally lived up to his hype and is on the verge of taking the Bulldogs to the title game.
GA Tech is thankful for: Having a cool car to drive on Saturdays?

#4 Gators @ #14 Seminoles - The Sunshine state gets into rivalry week with the Gators v. 'Noles.  Both teams come into this game with only one loss, but the Gators lost to Georgia, and the 'Noles lost to unranked NC State. Florida will have QB Jeff Driskel back for this game even though he may not be 100%.  The Gators passing game has been bad all year and it won't change this week. FSU QB EJ Manuel has had the offense humming all season.  For FSU, an ACC Championship and Orange Bowl matchup against a Big East team pales in comparison to beating their in state rivals.  Look for FSU to leave it all on the field this week and knock at least one SEC team out of the running for a BCS Championship.  29-25 Florida State.

Gators are thankful for: Who else?

FSU is thankful for:

#5 Ducks @ #15 Beavers - Ask any Ducks fan and they'll tell you they were SCREWED by the refs last week!  SCREWED!  Take a look at the game tying TD that Stanford scored and you be the judge...

The Ducks like to point to the next frame of that sequence where the player's shoulder is out of bounds and he's juggling the ball, but in this pic, it looks like he has possession and is definitely in bounds, which is a TD, unless you're Penn State playing at Nebraska, then it's just not for some reason. Regardless, the Ducks were held to 14 points, 29 points less than their next lowest total of the season.  The Stanford D held the Ducks in check all game and their offense did just enough, scoring the above TD with under 2 minutes left, then kicking the game winning FG in OT.  Can the Ducks bounce back against their in state rivals in the Civil War this week?

Oregon State can't win the Pac 12 North division and probably won't be getting a BCS at large bid, but they can certainly ruin their rivals season by knocking them completely out of the BCS picture with a win this week.  Beavers HC Mike Riley should get some coach of the year consideration for the job he's done with OSU this year.  43-31 Ducks.


Oregon is thankful for: Nike.  Without Nike, Oregon would be forced to wash their uniforms and wear them again!

Oregon State is thankful for:
Because nobody likes a dirty beaver.

#7 LSU @ Arkansas - The Tigers are highest ranked 2 loss team, and are hoping for another SEC miracle like in 2007 when LSU lost two triple OT games but still won the national title.  The Tigers took care of Ole Miss last week, but showed some cracks in their defense, giving up 35 points.  The Tigers were down by a TD in the 4th quarter and scored the game winning TD with only 15 seconds left.  Was it a let down game or a sign of things to come?  Like in 2007, Arkansas is looking knock off LSU and remove them from the BCS discussion.  Sadly for the rest of us, there is only one game left in the John L. Smith era at Arkansas.  With the Tennessee job already open, and the Auburn job most likely to be open soon, Arkansas will have to battle to get the coach they want.  As for this game, 37 - 17 LSU.

LSU is thankful for: Les only eating grass instead of smoking it.

Arkansas is thankful for: John L. Smith having "Interim" attached to his "Head Coach" title.

#8 Stanford @ #18 UCLA - The Cardinal are in the driver's seat for the Pac 12 North title after last week's 17-14 OT win against Oregon.  If the Cardinal win, they take on UCLA in Palo Alto next week.  If they lose, depending on what Oregon does, they'll most likely be playing at UCLA next week.  UCLA wrapped up the Pac 12 South title last week by beating in town rival USC 38-28.  First year Bruins HC Jim Mora Jr should also get some votes for coach of the year.  And the Bruins attack is lead by Freshman QB Brett Hundley and RB Johnathan Franklin.  Hundley gets little press outside of LA compared to the other Freshman QB's Johnny Manziel at Texas A&M and Marcus Mariota of Oregon, but he is every bit as good.  Will Stanford have a let down after such an emotional win last week?  Can we say the same for the Bruins?  UCLA's offense is ranked higher and Stanford's D is ranked higher.  It's a game like this that will come down to turnovers.  30-24 UCLA.

Stanford is thankful for: Former QB Andrew Luck & former HC Jim Harbaugh for making Stanford football relevant again.
UCLA is thankful for: USC HC Lane Kiffin being a gigantic douche bag...
Former USC HC Pete Carroll was beloved by the LA media and UCLA was barely mentioned.  But with Kiffin throwing temper tamptrums and walking out of press conferences when the media ask questions he doesn't like, UCLA and HC Jim Mora Jr. are getting a lot of good will in a town where college football is normally an after thought.

Mizzou @ #9 Texas A&M -A battle of two former Big XII members and current SEC Freshman teams.  A&M has their signature win, taking down the Crimson Tide two weeks ago.  Meanwhile, Mizzou is coming off a loss to Big Least member Syracuse.  Mizzou is sitting at 5-6 and needs this win to become bowl eligible.  The Aggies don't have a chance at the SEC Championship, and at this point are just hoping for an at large BCS bid but even that looks unlikely.  That said, the A&M program has not made this much noise on the national scene since R.C. Slocum was roaming the sidelines.  38-17 Aggies.

Texas A&M is thankful for: QB Johnny Manziel aka "Johnny Football"
Mizzou is thankful for: The SEC and it's TV money.  Yes, the Tigers gave up their border war rivalry with Kansas, but when Kansas is your biggest rival, is it really that big of a deal to give up?

#12 Gamecocks @ #11 Tigers - The Battle of the Palmetto State!  Which dates back to pre-civil war apparently. Somehow Clemson has managed to avoid their annual late season collapse and enter this game with a 10-1 record.  This is another ACC v. SEC matchup.  With the ACC potentially being raided, it's a good time for the ACC schools to prove they can handle their SEC brethren on the field.  Clemson QB Tajh Boyd has been on fire all season throwing for 33 TD's, 3,367 yards and only 11 INT's while adding 466 yards and 8 TD's on the ground. He has plenty of weapons on offense to throw too, most notably WR Sammy Watkins.  The Gamecocks squad is built on solid D and was built on the talents of RB Marcus Lattimore.  Without Lattimore to lean on, QB Connor Shaw has had to pick up the slack on offense and has answered the bell so far. While not as dynamic as Boyd, Shaw can hold is own.  The question will be whether South Carolina's D can slow down the Clemson offense.  I foresee the ACC winning this matchup.  33-27 Clemson.

South Caroline is thankful for: HC Steve Spurrier
Clemson is thankful for: Transitioning from an all white male military school to a coeducational institution of higher learning in 1955, which of course lead directly to a 10-1 record this season.

#21 Cowboys @ #13 Sooners -The Oklahoma Farm Bureau Bedlam Series!  Because today, everything needs a sponsor.   OU can still win the Big XII if K State loses to Texas and the Sooners win out.  Okie State cannot win the Big XII, but can spoil their in state rivals season and sometime, that's just as good.  Offense has not been a problem for the Cowboys this  year.  They rank 3rd in the nation with 45.4 points per game. The Cowboys D is something RichRod would be proud of.  They are ranked 56th in the nation giving up 26 points per game. In fact, the Cowboys gave up 59 to RichRod's Arizona squad earlier this year.  The Sooners offense has rounded into form after some struggles earlier in the season.  Their D is also better and they've only lost to K State and Notre Dame, not exactly bad losses.  If the Sooners hope to crash the BCS party, they need to take care of the Cowboys first. 37-31 Sooners.

Sooners are thankful for: HC Bob Stoops leading them to a BCS Championship in 2001.  That title has bought Stoops a decade worth of good will in Norman which is starting to run out.
Okie State is thankful for: Billionaire T. Boone Pickens - much like Nike and Oregon, T. Boone has given so much money to the Cowboys program that without him, they'd probably be battling Kansas for the Big XII basement.

#14 Nebraska @ Iowa - If the Huskers win they are in the Big Ten title game against Wisconsin.  The Huskers rely on the legs and occasional arm of QB Taylor Martinez and he's delivered this season.  The Huskers only losses are to undefeated Ohio State and UCLA, neither of which is a bad loss.  This is a season to forget for the Hawkeyes and has put HC Kirk Ferentz on the hot seat.  Iowa's offense is atrocious.  34 - 3 Nebraska.

Nebraska is thankful for: Their most famous non-football alum is a walking stereotype of their state.
Iowa is thankful for: Playing in Iowa.  Because if they played anywhere else somebody might notice how terrible they are.

TCU @ #16 Texas - A Thanksgiving day game in the Lonestar State! Texas can still tie for the Big XII title, but needs OU to lose and Texas has to win out...
TCU can't win shit, but they'd love to play spoiler.  The much hyped Longhorns D hasn't lived up to their preseason press this year.  The Horned Frogs are trying to get to .500 in their first season in the Big XII.  They are already bowl eligible, but 7 wins would look a lot better to potential bowls than 6.  30 - 27 Longhorns.

Texas is thankful for: Vince Young for obvious reasons.
TCU is thankful for: The police doing their job, because it's the college students dealing drugs that are the problem in the Lonestar state.

#18 Rutgers @ Pitt - What used to be a Big East clash is now a battle between a future ACC & Big Ten schools. Rutgers is on the brink of a 10 win season, which is remarkable considering their coach left them just after signing day last year.  Now, not even a year later, Rutgers has hit the conference realignment lottery, being rescued from the stinking cess pool that is the Big East by the Big Ten. They will now get to cash in on the Big Ten's next TV contract.  Pitt blows.  45 - 17 Scarlet Knights.

Rutgers is thankful for:  This is fairly obvious...
Pitt is thankful for:  This is a tough one.... Mark May, what do you think?
Agreed.  Pitt blows and you suck.

#19 Michigan @ Ohio State - Simply "The Game".  Or as everyone outside the states of Michigan and Ohio call it, Michigan plays Ohio State this week.  This is as an intense a rivalry as there is in college football.  There is an abundance of hate on both sides learned from an early age...
And carried through college years...
The Buckeyes are undefeated but thanks to free tattoos, won't be participating in any bowl games this year.  The Buckeye faithful are so pissed off for their post season ban, they've petitioned the President to allow them to play for a title.  Because in Ohio, the second best thing to bailing out car companies is bailing out Ohio State football. But really, they deserve it, just ask HC Urban Meyer...
The Buckeyes have escaped a couple OT games this year, including last week as they beat the Badgers in OT after giving up the game tying TD with 8 seconds left. QB Braxton Miller doesn't throw it a lot, but he doesn't have too.  He's a runner first and second and a passer third.  He only needs to complete around 10 passes per game for the Buckeye offense to be effective.  He's that good of a runner.  On the flip side, Michigan's dynamic QB Denard Robinson is also a runner first and passer third with the frame of a WR, he can't take the punishment that Miller can.  Enter QB Devin Gardner, who's taken the reigns of the Wolverine offense in D Rob's absence.  Gardner is not as explosive as D Rob, but he's athletic, he can run and he's a better passer.  The Wolverines are still trying to get D Rob involved by putting him at RB or WR just to get the ball in his hands.  Michigan has to do what nobody has done all year, stop the Buckeye ground game.  34-27 Buckeyes.

Ohio State is thankful for: Their fans. Arguably the most obnoxious and arrogant in all of college football and they are not shy about the fact that winning is the single most important thing not matter how you get it done.
Michigan is thankful for: RichRod now coaching in the desert.

UConn @ #20 Louisville - A Big East matchup.  Yawn.  The Cardinals got destroyed by Syracuse last week 45-26, ending their perfect season. Louisville still has a shot at winning the Big East, as does Rutgers. If Louisville and Rutgers win this week, they'll play each next week in a de facto Big East Championship game.  UConn plays decent defense, but their offense stinks.  Cardinals HC Charlie Strong continues to be a hot name to head back to an SEC school. 35 - 13 Louisville.

UConn is thankful for: Geno Auriemma and the Lady Huskies basketball program, because without them UConn athletics would be bad all around.
Louisville is thankful for: Basketball HC Rick Pitino, because let's be honest, Louisville is first and foremost a basketball school.

Ohio @ #23 Kent State - The Golden Flashes have only 1 loss this season.  Granted it was too SEC bottom feeder Kentucky, but still, only one loss is pretty damn good.  Kent State has already clinched a spot in the MAC Championship game for the first time ever and have the most wins in school history.  Look for second year HC Darrell Hazell to start getting some interest from BCS programs soon.  Ohio's once promising season has gone off the rails as the Bobcats have lost 3 of their past 4 games. Their defense has gotten especially bad.  The Bobcats ground game is still potent, but if they can't fix the D, the Golden Flashes with run all over them.  37 - 24 Kent State

Ohio is thankful for: Playing Penn State in Bill O'Brien's first game, because if they played them now, that result would be much different.
Kent State is thankful for: HC Darrell Hazell putting them on the college football map.

Arizona State @ #24 Arizona - The Territorial Cup is up for grabs in the desert as two first year head coaches get their first taste of the in state rivalry.  Arizona HC Rich Rodriguez and his spread offense, and spread defense for that matter, take on ASU HC Todd Graham and his spread offense as well.  This game means nothing other than bragging rights and bowl positioning.  Both teams have identical Pac 12 records at 4-4, but Arizona 7-4 overall while ASU is 6-5.  If you don't like defense, this is the game for you this week. 54 - 45 Arizona State.

Arizona is thankful for: Their fans for still showing up despite their program's mediocrity.

Arizona State is thankful for: Yep, lots to be thankful for at ASU.




#25 Washington @ Wazzu - The Apple Cup!  Mmmm.... apples.  My wife makes a mean apple crumb pie.  I actually have her make two every year one of which I don't want to share, that's how good it is.  And no, I'm not above eating an entire pie by myself.  You can judge all you want but it's freakin' delicious when you warm it up and add a scoop of vanilla ice cream....
The Huskies are 7-4 and looking to build on a nice season by whooping up on their in state rivals.  UW has won 4 in a row, mostly by playing solid D.  Their offense is still not very good, but it doesn't have to be right now.  On the other hand, Wazzu is bad.  HC Mike Leach is in his first year with the program and doesn't have "his" players to run his system yet, but still better results were expected.  In fact, things are going down hill quickly in Pullman.  WR Marquess Wilson, a second team all Pac 12 selection, quit the team abruptly and accused Leach of abusing his players in a scathing statement.  None of that is good for a HC trying to build a program that hasn't had a succesful program since Ryan Leaf, yes, that Ryan Leaf, was their QB.  It doesn't look good for the Cougars this week.  49 - 13 Huskies.

Washington is thankful for: The women of Wazzu, because it makes the Huskies women look hot by comparison.

Wazzu is thankful for: HC Mike Leach!  Because Leach provides the only entertainment there is in Pullman.

Games of Note

Badgers @ Nittany Lions - The Badgers have wrapped up the Leaders division and will play in the Big Ten Championship.  Although they're vying for a 3rd straight BCS game, this Badgers team is much weaker than the previous two years.  It's a turn style at QB, where Joel Stave and Danny O'Brien have both gotten time and have had mediocre results. Senior RB Montee Ball has rounded into form but won't be a Hesiman finalist this year.  The Badgers still play tough D and run the ball, and they'll stick to that because that's all they know how to do.  For Penn State, even at 7-4 this season has been a monumental success.  Most predicted the demise of PSU football and a losing record.  HC Bill O'Brien is getting coach of the year consideration and it's well deserved, but what's more deserved is recognizing the seniors on the team that have stuck together and kept the program afloat after all the crap that went down.  QB Matt McGloin, a former walk on, has played better than anyone could have predicted this year under O'Brien's tutelage.  If O'Brien can make McGloin into a record breaking QB, imagine what he can do with a top talent like JUCO QB Jake Waters, true Freshman Steven Bench and/or top recruit Christian Hackenburg.  Despite the sanctions, O'Brien has the Nittany Lion program heading in the right direction.  30-27 Penn State.

Penn State is thankful for: HC Bill O'Brien obviously!

Wisconsin is thankful for: The NCAA, for sanctioning PSU and OSU and handing them a the Big Ten leaders division.

WVU @ Iowa State - For the Mountaineers, it's been a tale of two seasons.  First, a 5 game winning streak and an unstoppable offense.  Followed by a 5 game losing streak and a defense that is one of the worst in the nation.  The Mountaineers came close last week, scoring a go ahead TD with just under 3 minutes to go, but oh that Mountaineer D!  The Sooners marched down the field at will and scored the game winning TD, QB Landry Jones' 6th TD pass of the game, with under a minute left for a 50-49 win.  It was almost too easy.  On the plus side, WR Tavon Austin is as dynamic a WR as there is in the nation.  The kid can take it to the house on any given play.  QB Geno Smith's star has fluttered during the losing streak, but he's still a solid QB.  Iowa State has played solid all season even if there record doesn't necessarily reflect the progress HC Paul Rhodes has made in Ames.  At 6-5, the Cyclones are looking to stay above .500 on the season and position themselves for a decent bowl game, but do they have enough fire power on offense to keep pace with the Mountaineers?  50-38 West Virginia

WVU is thankful for: Couches and matches.

Iowa State is thankful for: Basketball HC Fred Hoiberg, aka "The Mayor" and the most famous resident of Ames ever.

LA Tech @ San Jose State - The Bulldogs came back from 24 down against Utah State last week, hitting the game tying FG as time expired to force over time, but the Bulldogs D couldn't hold up their end of the bargain, giving up the game winning TD in OT and losing 48-41.  With that loss, LA Tech has to hope Idaho can pull a monumental upset of Utah State this week to give them even a share of the WAC title.  The Bulldogs offense has been good all season, in fact they lead the NCAA in scoring at 52.3 points per game.  HC Sonny Dykes will be a popular candidate to take a step up in the coaching ranks.  Maybe he can follow in the footsteps of former Bulldogs HC Derek Dooley and take over at Tennessee?  San Jose State is also 9-2 and 4-1 in the WAC, also losing to Utah State.  Unlike LA Tech, the Spartans like to play defense.  While the Bulldogs give up 37.3 points per game, ranking them 113th in the nation, San Jose State is only giving up 19.5 points per game, good enough for 23rd in the nation.  So which wins out?  LA Tech's #1 ranked offense or SJSU's strong D?  45 - 37 LA Tech.

Bulldogs are thankful for: HC Sonny Dykes giving the Bulldogs an offense the mighty LSU Tigers are envious of.

San Jose is thankful for: San Jose! Even if their team goes 0-12, hey, you still get to go to school in San Jose!

Upset of the Week 


Kentucky @ Tennessee - A showdown of lame duck coaches, or in the case of Tennessee, the coach that already flew the coupe.  These two schools are just two of the at least four SEC schools that will be looking for new coaches this off season.  Joker Phillips could not get it done at Kentucky, a school that values success in March more than the fall.  Tennessee pushed Phil Fulmer out the door and has been searching for success ever since.  The grass is not always greener on the other sideline as the Volunteers have found out. Both teams are 0-7 in the SEC and looking to avoid joining Auburn as winless SEC squads this year.  30-24 Kentucky. 

Kentucky is thankful for:  Basketball HC John Calipari, duh!  

Tennessee is thankful for: Their glory days. 

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