Tuesday, September 10, 2013

Week 3 Predictions

It was an odd Week 2 in college football, but perhaps none more awkward than the pairing of Herbie, Musberger and Eminem...
And for the first time in this author's lifetime, Texas, USC, Florida and Notre dame all lost on the same day.
That hasn't happened since the Ford administration.

And now the head coaches from two of those big time programs are officially on the hot seat.  You know who's more popular than Lane Kiffin and Mack Brown right now?
King Joffrey
Let's start off with the least popular man in Knoxville and Los Angeles.

Kiffin guided the Trojans to a 10-7 loss at home to perennial Pac 12 bottom feeder Washington State.  Yes, USC, who last year was ranked #1 and talked openly about winning a national title, just lost at home despite their D not allowing an offensive touchdown.  Wazzu gave up 394 yards through the air last week to an Auburn team that fielded one of the worst offenses in football last season.

And did I mention USC has WR Marqise Lee, who was getting Heisman hype in the pre season?

When it was all said and done, USC's two highly recruited QB's Cody Kessler and Max Wittek combined to go 11-21 for 54 yards and 2.6 yards per attempt through the air and each threw an INT.  Wazzu's only score was a 70 yard pick-six just before half time.

The Trojans mustered 139 yards on the ground to the tune of a 3.3 average.  They actually held the Cougars to 7 total yards rushing and picked them off twice.

I repeat, they held them to 7 total yards rushing and picked them off twice and did not allow an offensive TD.  AND THEY LOST. AT HOME.

That's the worst performance since this...
Bababooey First Pitch
On the flip side of that inept offensive performance is Mack Brown's Longhorns defense.

The 'Horns also lost to the Cougars, as BYU stampeded through the Texas D to the tune of 550 yards on the ground.  BYU QB Tayson Hill rumbled for 259 yards and 3 TD's and, most impressive of all, averaged 15.3 yards per carry.  That's just nuts.  It's like the entire 'Horns D forgot how to tackle.  Or they forgot to scout BYU, who installed a new read option offense this year.  I'm guessing it was a combo of the two.

How do you remedy this?  Mack Brown started by firing DC Manny Diaz and hiring Greg Robinson for the same position. This is the same Greg Robinson that was the DC at Michigan under Rich Rodriguez.  Seriously.  The guy who was in charge of Michigan's D when they finished 82nd in total D in 2009 and then 110th in 2010 was just hired to essentially save Mack Brown's job.
Sadly for Texas fans, I am not fucking kidding you.

So does USC go after Washington HC and former USC assistant Steve Sarkisian?  Does Texas look in state at TCU HC Gary Patterson or tempt Urban Meyer to leave Ohio for the fertile recruiting grounds of Texas?  Who knows.  But it's looking like both positions will be available soon.

On to week 3...

#1 Alabama @ #6  Fightin' Manziels - "Bama got to rest and watch Manziel do what he does best...
No, the other thing he does best...

The Aggies knocked off Sam Houston State and now await the biggest game thus far of our young season.  Bama will be looking to get revenge against the Aggies and Manziel for their lone loss last season.  To do so, the 'Bama D will have to contain Johnny Football.  That's easier said than done.  Manziel is at his best when plays break down and he can create.  There are no defensive calls that can account for broken and improvised plays.  On offense, the Aggies will need to keep mistakes to a minimum.  A penalty or dropped scoring toss could cost them the game.  On D, the Aggies will try to keep the Tide from beating them deep.  Tide QB AJ McCarron can have his own Heisman coming out party with a big game this year.  So which team makes the least mistakes?
Roll Tide!

35 - 27 Alabama

Tennessee @ #2 Oregon - The Ducks have outscored their opponents 125-13 in their two games this season. The Ducks are fast...
and while they've outscored their opponents by over 100 points, those opponents were an FCS school and a bad ACC team.  So what do we know about the Ducks?  We know they can beat up on smaller, slower teams.
The going gets a bit tougher this week as they take on the Volunteers who have outscored their opponents 97-20.  Like Oregon, those opponents were an FCS school and a Sun Belt squad.  The Vols forced 7 turnovers against W Kentucky last week, returning two INT's for a TD.  If the Vols can force the Ducks to cough it up again this week and keep that offense off the field they may have a chance.  Tennessee fans ran former HC Phil Fulmer out of town and have not seen the kind of success he brought since.  Vols HC Butch Jones has won at every stop and a win against the Mighty Ducks...
Getting Drunk and Winning Runs in the Family
... would go a long way to endearing him to Vols fans.  But I don't see it happening.

45 - 17 Oregon

#4 Ohio State @ Cal - Is Cal auditioning for the next Big Ten expansion?  Or do the Big Ten teams just like the weather in NoCal? The Buckeyes are the second Big Ten team to visit Berkley in 3 weeks.  The Buckeyes may not have QB Tim Tebow... er, Braxton Miller, who went down in the 1st quarter last week and has been diagnosed with an sprained MCL.
OSU still rocked the Aztecs but Buckeyes fans know their National Championship hopes ride on the legs of Miller.  OSU should have no problem this week as Cal HC Sonny Dykes is still in the process of teaching his high octane offense.

45-10 Buckeyes

#5 Stanford @ Army - Army is one of the few teams that still use the triple option offense.  You won't see a lot of passing yards from the Black Knights.  Defending the option is all about playing disciplined D, which the Cardinal excel in.  Stanford took care of business against the plucky San Jose State Spartans and should have no problem shutting down Army's rushing attack this week.

38-7 Stanford


#7 Louisville @ Kentucky - QB Teddy Bridewater continued to turn in Heisman worthy stats, racking up 397 yards and 4 TD's against Eastern Kentucky.  Bridgewater needs to keep putting up video game stats as the Cardinals don't have a single game against a currently ranked opponent on their schedule.

Wildcats rookie HC Mark Stoops got his first win as a head coach against Miami (OH) in a rout last week. After a loss to W Kentucky to open the season, a loss to in state rival Louisville would make the Wildcats the worst FBS program in the state.  The good news is Stoops is hauling in some talent on the recruiting trail that will improve the Wildcats, but bad news is that talent won't be on campus until next season. But don't fret Wildcats fans, basketball season is only a few months away.
38-3 Louisville

Kent State @ #8 LSU - LSU HC Les Miles is known as the Mad Hatter.  He chews grass, calls insane plays at odd times, mismanages the clock, and yet he still wins.  Is there anything the guy can't do? Survive a Sharknado maybe?
Nope, he's got that handled too.

The Tigers handled UAB with ease last week.  This week they get the Golden Flashes of Kent State who may or may not have star RB Dri Archer who suffered an ankle injury and missed the Flashes loss against Bowling Green last week.  Even with him, the Flashes are just not very good.  LSU should have another cake walk.

56-13 Tigers

Nevada @ #10 Florida State - The 'Noles took a week off after QB Jameis Winston's coming out party at Pitt.  Winston will look to repeat his performance but this time in Tallahassee.  FSU should have an easy time getting to their October 19th date with Clemson undefeated.

Nevada's D is awful.  They did get a W against FCS UC-Davis, but still, that D is terrible.

56-7 Seminoles

Akron @ #11 Michigan - The Wolverines played one of the most exciting games of the young season last week, knocking off the Fightin' Irish 41-30 in front of 115,109 spectators, the largest crowd ever for a college football game.
Michigan QB Devin Gardner donned the hallowed #98 jersey of Michigan legend Tom Harmon, the Wolverines first Heisman trophy winner back in 1940, and did the jersey proud throwing for 294 yards and 4 TD's and adding 82 yards and 1 TD on the ground.

He found his favorite target WR Jeremy Gallon for 184 yards and 3 TD's.  Aside from a boneheaded retreat into his own end zone to avoid a sack and then an even more boneheaded attempt to throw the ball away to avoid a safety which resulted in a pick six for the Irish, Gardner was solid all game.

Even though the Zips managed a 35-33 win against FCS James Madison last week, they are not good on either side of the ball. And I'm being generous by saying "not good".

47-7 Michigan

Lamar @ #12 Okie State -
Oklahoma State is responding to allegations in an upcoming SI article about misconduct in the program starting in 2001.  The allegations include payments to players from boosters and academic fraud, including changing grades, as well as widespread drug abuse and that hostesses in a University program provided sex to recruits.

Was SI investigating or just watching The Program?
I still feel bad for Latimer.  Kid was a beast but just couldn't get it done without juicing.

Okie State has already said they'll conduct an internal investigation.  My advice, make sure the report finds no wrong doing and tell the NCAA to eff off when they come calling.

The Cowboys easily handled the Roadrunners last week putting up 56 points in San Antonio.  They should have an even easier time this week against FCS Lamar.

59-10 Cowboys


Vanderbilt @ #13 South Carolina - Something is wrong with all world DE Jadeveon Clowney. He's playing, but does not seem to be at the same level as last season.  Last week, the Bulldogs neutralized him by allowing him to rush inside and then either throwing or running to the outside of him.  So what do you do with a player you can't block?  Apparently you don't worry about blocking him, you just make him go where you want him to on the field and then run where he's not.  Clowney will need to get better as more teams simply run around him.  The entire 'Cocks D will need to play better after giving up huge yards and 41 points to Georgia.

South Carolina RB Mike Davis had a coming out party in a losing effort last week.  Davis put up 149 yards and 1 TD and averaged 9.3 yards per carry.  He broke off a huge 75 yard run that caught the Bulldogs completely off guard.  Despite the loss, South Carolina is still in the hunt for the SEC East title and a BCS game.  The Commodores may not like playing a pissed off 'Cocks squad, but Lee Corso definitely enjoys playing with a Cock...
On the other hand, Kirk Herbstriet apparently doesn't want to touch Corso's Cock.
Yep.  Cock jokes.  So I've got that going for me.  Which is nice.   

Vandy took out their frustration of losing a heart breaker in week 1 and opened up a can of whoop ass on Austin Peay.
SCAR will have to account for Vandy LB Caleb Azubike, and hope they don't make him angry.  You wouldn't like him when he's angry...
Vandy has some offensive weapons in SR QB Austyn Carta-Samuels and his favorite target SR WR Jordan Mathews.  Those two can hook up for a score from anywhere on the field.  Clowney will have to show up and make some plays or else Vandy has the weapons to make this a long night for the Gamecocks.

34-24 South Carolina


Tulsa @ #14 Oklahoma - The OU offense couldn't find the right gear against a solid performance from WVU last week.  OU was lead by RB Brennan Clay's 170 yards and QB Travis Knight was replaced by Blake Bell in the 4th quarter after throwing a couple of picks.  The D came up big and held WVU to just 7 points.  It wasn't so much great defense in this game as much as it was bad offense.

The Sooners have decided to make a switch and go with the Belldozer for this game.

The Golden Hurricane are coming off a dramatic win, knocking off Colorado State 30-27 on a FG as time expired.  I'd like to take this time to make my first nomination of the year for worst college mascot.
Not only does your school nickname sound like something R Kelly would be envious of, but your mascot looks like the red headed step child of Captain America.

Tulsa likes to throw and if the Sooners offense stalls, they could be in for a shootout.

36-20 Sooners

#16 UCLA @ #23 Nebraska - The Bruins hung 58 points on Nevada to open season behind the dual threat talents of QB Brett Hundley.
The Sophomore can get it done on the ground and through the air.  It's hard to tell how good the Bruins offense is after only one game but one thing we do know is the Huskers D ain't all that.

Nebraska extended Southern Miss' misery with a 56-13 victory last week.  So Miss sucks.  The previous week Wyoming gave the Huskers all they could handle at home, and this Bruins offense has more talent than the Cowboys.  QB Taylor Martinez is a dual threat in his own right.  Can the Bruins D contain him? Take the over in this one.

45-38 UCLA

W Michigan @ #17 Northwestern - The Wildcats put away Syracuse by half time last week, leading 34-7 at the break en route to a 48-27 win.  Northwestern was paced by the dual threat QB duo of Kain Colter & Trevor Siemian, who are quite possibly the best duo since these guys...
Ace & Gary
Colter accounted for 116 yards and 1 TD through the air and 87 yards and another TD on the ground, while Siemian tossed 3 TD's aired it out for 259 yards.  All this was without their biggest weapon, RB Venric Mark, who sat out with an injury.  The 'Cats offense has been humming all season and this week will be no different.  The Broncos are coming off a loss to FCS Nicholls State.  This game will be a wipeout.
54-7 Northwestern

#19 Washington @ Illinois - The Fightin' Illini were underdogs against Cincy going into last week and came out with a 45-17 win.  QB Nathan Scheelhaase went off for 312 yards and 4 TD's through the air. Scheelhaase was not hassled all game, and as you know, you DO NOT hassle the Haas.
U-Dub took a week off after thrashing Boise State to open their season.  Boise was a popular upset pick in week 1 and limped away with a 32 point loss.  The Illini will have to shut down RB Bishop Sankey who is the main cog in the Huskies offensive machine.

The next few weeks we'll start to see which teams are for real and which teams were just bullying lesser programs, because eventually the bullies get beat.

29-24 Washington

#20 Wisconsin @ Arizona State - The only stumble in ASU's 55-0 flogging of FCS Sacramento State was by Sun Devil Center Kody Koebensky, who took a dive when running out of the tunnel with his teammates.
Wisconsin is 2-0 and hasn't allowed a point yet this season.  Is the Wisky D ridiculously good? Doubtful considering those two shutouts came against FCS Tennessee Tech and UMass, who in their second year at the FBS level still has mostly FCS talent.

In other words, the pre-season is over for both teams and now it's time to find out which one is for real.

27-20 Sun Devils

#21 Notre Dame @ Purdue - If you thought Bon Jovi was an Italian rock star from New Jersey, you were wrong...
he's inexplicably Irish?  Well, he's an Irish fan at least.  Which makes sense with his son Jesse being a walk on to the Irish squad.
Jesse Bongiovi
I wonder if it's awkward for Jesse when they play "Livin' on a prayer" at parties.

The Irish D looked like it did against Alabama last season, failing to slow down the Michigan attack unless the Wolverines stopped themselves.  QB Tommy Rees eclipsed the 300 yard mark and tossed 2 TD's, but also was picked off twice.

Purdue might have the worst offense in college football at the moment. The Boilers have a total of 27 points in two games, including 20 points against FCS foe Indiana State last week.  They needed a late INT to preserve their 20-14 victory.  If new HC Darrell Hazell is going to live up to the hype, he's going to need to figure out how to get his team to put points on the board.

41-0 Notre Dame

#24 TCU @ Texas Tech - Walk on freshman QB Baker Mayfield is the toast of Lubbock after two strong performances to open the season. The Red Raiders have put up 102 points in two games and Mayfield leads the team in passing and rushing.  As is par for the course in the early weeks of college football, the level of competition leaves something to be desired.  SF Austin is an FCS school and SMU is not exactly known for it's tough defense.

On the other hand, TCU HC Gary Patterson prides himself on his teams playing tough D.
The Horned Frogs took care of business against FCS SE Louisiana 38-17.  Texas Tech is known for their air it out offense.  TCU is known for their tough D.  Different schools, different philosophies, different hotties..
 

So which philosophy wins out?  #27 or #9? Offense or defense?

27-24 Red Raiders

#25 Ole Miss @ Texas - QB David Ash has played well this season, but it's not a good sign that he leads the 'Horns in rushing yardage too.  The 'Horns are reeling after their worst defensive performance in school history against BYU.

Ole Miss is 2-0 after dispatching with FCS SE Missouri State.  Texas will need to find an answer for highly touted freshman WR Laquon Treadwell, who is the real deal.

Along with WR  Donte Moncrief and freshman TE Evan Engram the Rebels have some reliable weapons for QB Bo Wallace in the passing game.

Texas HC Mack Brown better bring this to the game with him...
If Texas has another showing like the debacle last week, that will be the only thing to ease the burn when he tries to sit down.

39-24 Ole Miss

Games of Note

Central Florida @ Penn State - The Golden Knights are 2-0 and have given up a total of 7 points this season.  As expected, those 2 wins came against over matched opponents Florida International and Akron.  Even a short handed Nittany Lions squad is better than those two programs.  UCF is lead by QB Blake Bortles who is a damn good QB and can air it out.  The running game is paced by RB Storm Johnson, who transferred to UCF after spending his freshman season at Miami. PSU will need to find a way to contain WR's Rannell Hall and Breshard Perriman, both of whom can break a big play at any time.

PSU is a bit banged up with OLB Mike Hull missing the Eastern Michigan game with a knee sprain.  PSU started slll.....ooooo....www... against the Eagles but picked it up in the second half.  True freshman QB Christian Hackenburg looked shaky to start but settled down and finished with 311 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT.  The kid is prone to freshman mistakes, but his physical tools are apparent.  Once this kid masters the mental side of the game, look out.  The Lions had a pair of 100 yard rushers in RB Bill Belton and Akeel Lynch. RB Zach Zwinak is still the starter, but HC Bill O'Brien will go with the hot hand at RB.  Any of the three could be the leading rusher on any given Saturday.  Through the air, WR Allen Robinson continues to be one of the best WR's in college football.  Even when he's not getting the ball, the attention he commands allows other receivers to get open.  The junior will most likely be playing on Sundays come next season.

Bill O'Brien
UCF HC George O'Leary and PSU HC Bill O'Brien go all the way back to O'Leary's days at GA Tech, when he hired the younger O'Brien as a grad assistant.  It's hard to believe, but O'Leary has been at UCF for 9 years already and has had 5 winning seasons and 4 losing since taking the reigns.  Except for an 8-5 record in 2009, the Knights have followed every winning season with a losing one.  UCF went 10-4 last year.  Can the protege' knock off his one time master?


George O'Leary

This is the toughest game of the season for both squads.  If the Lions get off to another slow start and let the Knights go up early, it will be a long night in Happy Valley.  But if PSU can snap out of it's first half funk and put up some points and create turnovers, the Knights will have a long plane ride back to Disney World.









27-23 Penn State

Georgia State @ WVU - The Mountaineers put up a fight in Norman last week but ended up losing 16-7.  It looks to be a rebuilding year in Morgantown but a bowl game should still be within reach.

The Georgia State Panthers are in their first season at the FBS level and have already lost to two FCS opponents.  You have to hand it to GSU though, they weren't afraid to schedule Alabama despite their lack of... well, everything.  If the Panthers somehow found a way to beat 'Bama, that would be the biggest upset since...
Buster Douglas beats Mike Tyson
45-3 Mountaineers

Southern Miss @ Arkansas - The Golden Eagles are on a 14 game skid. Arkansas has won 2 in a row against lackluster opponents.  Southern Miss is a lackluster opponent.  Arkansas HC Brett Bielama once guest starred on Beavis & Butthead.
34-0 Arkansas.

Boston College @ USC - Bahahahahahahaha!!!!

20-10 Boston College






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