Thursday, October 4, 2012

Week 6 Predictions

September is behind us and we're finally getting into some good games!  One month into the season, let's see who's trending up and who's trending down.  By trending, I mean teams that seem to be getting better and may exceed expectations, and trending down... you get the idea.

Trending Up

Oregon State - The Beavers are building a dam (get it!?) good team! After winning only 3 games all of last  year, they've equaled that total through 1 month this season.  They've already knocked off two teams ranked at the time, Wisconsin and UCLA.  The Beavers are in the thick of the Pac 12 race at the moment.  Nobody really expected that.

Kansas State - The ultimate feast or famine team is feasting like Jaws on unsuspecting fisherman.  The Wildcats big win was at Oklahoma, but the ass kicking handed out to Miami in little Manhattan is looking like a better win every week.  The Wildcats have a tough schedule but 10 wins again is a definite possibility.

Western Kentucky - The Hilltoppers only loss is to #1 Alabama, who has beaten everyone.  That's nothing to be ashamed of.  The Hilltoppers even beat SEC and in state rival Kentucky. A Sun Belt schedule isn't exactly a murderers row of tough matchups, so the Hilltoppers may have a shot at double digit wins.

Penn State - This team was left for dead post sanctions.  Most people predicted 3 wins.  Most people were hoping for zero wins.  Unfortunately for everyone that hates Penn State, this team has more character and leadership than anyone ever thought and HC Bill O'Brien has made all the right moves thus far.  They are one decent kicker away from starting 4-1, and are currently on a 3 game winning streak.  With no post season to play for, it's balls to the wall for every game.  The haters will continue to hate, but they'll miss an energetic, charismatic young coach and some great players with a ton of character, and not a single person left in the program had anything to do with the scandal.

UT San Antonio Roadrunners - UTSA is 5-0 in the inaugural season at the FBS level. Granted, they play in the WAC and 3 of their wins have come against FCS foes, but still, for a first season at the highest level it's fairly impressive.

Trending Down 

Arkansas -

John L. Smith is reason enough to not look away.  He's now $40.7M in debt. Up from $25M a few weeks ago. At this rate, John L. Smith's debt will be more than the United States owes to China by the time the BCS Championship is played in 2016. This has lead me to a philosophical question... is it better to have John L. Smith as your coach or no coach at all?

Auburn - Auburn is one OT field goal away from being 0-4. Not quite as bad as Arkansas, but when you consider they won a national title just 2 years ago...

Big Ten - The Big Ten is terrible.

Southern Miss - 10 wins last season.  Zero so far this year.

The NCAA - "...Simply put, success in LSU football is essential for the success of Louisiana State University." - Mark Emmert, circa 1999.

Ohio State sent the NCAA an 800 page compliance action plan this week. This is the classic attorney move of drowning the other side in paper work.  Some things I'll assume are in this plan:

1. Ohio State shall have an unlimited football scholarships per year

2. Ohio State shall be able to employ as many coaches as they see fit at any point in time.  This includes assigning a full time staff to recruit while the other staff handles the game day coaching.

3. ESPN will refer to Coach Urban Meyer as "Lord Meyer" and is prohibited from portraying Lord Meyer and the football program in a negative light for as long as Lord Meyer is alive.

4. Ohio State will be allowed to play in multiple bowl games each year for the next 3 years to make up for the bowl games missed due to sanctions.  Oh, and all their FG's will count as 4 points.

5. Should the NCAA find any subsequent violations within the football program, the NCAA agrees to impose further sanctions on Penn State.  The NCAA and ESPN will report any such sanctions are due to the Sandusky Scandal and cannot be questioned in public or private under penalty of death.

As evidenced in the Penn State case with the Freeh report, the NCAA doesn't actually read anything, nor do they have a firm grasp on their own rule book or how to enforce anything.  Creating no-show classes and handing out A's to keep players eligible?  No problem!  Good luck this year Tar Heels!  But... trading equipment and autographs for tattoos!?

Look out!  You'll get hit with more sanctions than Iran.  And in the case of Penn State, well, their Board of Trustees and President are apparently masochists.  Why would a University pay $6.5 million for a report that would bury your own school and then agree to the harshest sanctions this side of SMU without ever critically analyzing said report or asking for due process?  In fact, PSU's Chairwoman of the Board, Karen Peetz, said they never even read the Freeh report!  Can you imagine agreeing to plead guilty without ever reading the evidence the plea is based upon?  Penn State obviously has a culture problem, but it appears to reside in the Board of Trustees and their ineptitude and ignorance rather than football.

Enough about off the field crap. let's see what's happening this week on the grid iron....

Top 25 Action

#1 'Bama v. Bye Week Laziness - I feel obligated to mention the Crimson Tide even when they are on a bye week for fear of suffering the wrath of Saban should he find out the bye week was not given enough credit.  Also,  the injury bug has bitten the Tide. With no game this week, Tide fans will have to find something else to occupy their time...

#23 Washington @ #2 Oregon - UW has been getting their W's by playing some solid D, which makes you wonder what the hell happened against LSU when they gave up 41 points.  The Tigers are not exactly a high octane offensive team. Stanford knocked off USC two weeks ago, and last week UW knocked off Stanford.  Parity reigns in the Pac 12.  UW is currently ranked 101st in passing and 106th in rushing yardage and 93rd with 23.3 ppg. On the flip side, the Ducks are 52nd in passing, 6th in rushing, and 4th in ppg at 52.4.  This is week 2 of a brutal stretch of games for UW. They beat Stanford last week, they get the Ducks this week and USC next week.  If the Huskies can go 2-1 v. those 3 teams, they will be in the thick of the Pac 12 Championship race.  41-14 Ducks.

#3 FSU @ WolfpackAny surprise a guy named Jimbo prefers hunting dogs over show dogs?  The 'Noles kept rolling last week with a 30-17 win over South Florida.  FSU doesn't play another team currently ranked in the top 25 until the last game of the year against a Florida team currently ranked #10.  The matchup at Miami in a few weeks is always an interesting game though. The Wolfpack have lost to the only two decent teams they've played this year, Tennessee and Miami.  Their D was torched for 566 yard through the air by 'Canes QB Stephon Morris in their 44-37 loss last week.  EJ Manuel and the FSU offense is much better than Miami.  45-13 Florida State.

#4 LSU @ #10 Florida - Despite winning, LSU continues to fall in the rankings.  Much like McKayla, the pollsters are not impressed. They've now dropped two spots in two weeks.  Perhaps it's just to build suspense before another LSU v. 'Bama national title game?  The Tigers won 38-22 over Towson last week. That final score may indicate the Tigers were looking ahead to The Swamp this week. These two teams are very similar.  They win with stifling defense and running the ball on offense. The month of October will make or break the Gators season, after Vandy next week, the Gators have South Carolina and Georgia at home. Do LSU's struggles on offense the past few weeks finally catch up with them or does Les Miles pull another game out of his ass?  27-21 Gators.

#5 Georgia @ #5 South Carolina -  The Ole Ball Coach has the Gamecocks D playing lights out while he waits for the offense to get up to speed.  The Bulldogs' offense has been humming all season, average 48 points per game.  Can the 'Cocks D slow down QB Aaron Murray? The Dogs O is in the top 30 in just about every offensive category.  While their D is not quite as good, it's no slouch.  Look for Georgia to beat the 'Cocks in their own house.... er.. I mean the Bulldogs will down the 'cocks... shit! ok... the 'Cocks will go limp against the... dammit!  Nevermind.  Georgia wins.  30-17.

Kansas @ #7 K-State -
"... I piled so much bologna, cheese and ketchup on that sandwich it was up to here!"

QB Collin Klein is on a role for KSU this year.  He leads a potent running game that ranks 14th in the nation.  The Wildcats are kind of one dimensional on O right now, with their aerial attack ranked 106th in the nation. Could this be a let down game for KSU after their big win in Oklahoma and a bye week? Kansas's only win has come against FCS South Dakota State.  You think Fatty Weis and QB Dayne Crist saw this coming a few years ago when Weis was Notre Dame's HC and Crist his latest QB protege?  45-3 K State.

#8 WVU @ #11 Texas - WVU may want to start playing some D. Everyone is heralding Geno Smith as the next RGIII after he put up ridiculous numbers against Baylor.  Lost in that discussion is the fact that WVU gave up 63 points and a ton of big plays.  Yes, Geno Smith is damn good, but Baylor's D isn't very good at all.  Numbers like that don't happen against good defenses.  They just don't.  If Tom Brady could play the Saints D every week, he'd have the best season a QB ever had.  My point is, bad D's can make a very good QB look like a Heisman winner.  Texas is by far the best D WVU has faced this year. The 'Horns faced a similar high octane, fast paced offense last week in their win against Okie State. That contest came down to a controversial Texas TD with under a minute left.  Look for a similar result this week as Texas's D is able to slow down WVU just enough to squeak by at home.  36-31 Longhorns.

Hook 'Em Horns!

Hurricanes @ #9 Notre Dame - The Irish are one of the few battled tested teams of the first month of the season.  They already have wins at Michigan State and against Purdue and Michigan at home.  That could mean one of two things.  1. The Irish have a good football team or 2. The Big Ten sucks.  Since we've already established the latter, we'll go with that for now.  After getting blown out at K State, Miami has found ways to win despite a leaky defense.  The Irish should be able to score this week and will have to shut down Miami's passing attack to win.  Notre Dame 37-17.

#21 Cornhuskers @ #12 Buckeyes Did OSU edit game tape sent to MSU?  Or is Sparty just a sore loser as usual?  Or both?  Probably both. The Huskers came back from 17 points down at home against the Badgers last week and won 30-27.  QB Taylor Martinez threw for 2 scores and ran for 1 more. Martinez still isn't a great passer, but he gets the job done. The Buckeyes eked out a 17-16 victory in East Lansing last week. QB Braxton Miller led the way with 136 yards rushing, and found WR Devin Smith open deep for a 63 yard TD, which accounted for nearly half his passing yards for the day.  Miller & Martinez are part of the new breed of college QB's who run first and pass second.  We used to call these players "Wildcat" QB's, but they've now become the norm.  Which is a likely reason NFL teams are desperate to find QB's these days.  This game could set passing offenses back 20 years and yet the commentators will sing the praises of the winning QB and dub him a "Dual Threat" without addressing the fact that neither of them are good passers.  Don't believe the hype. 21-17 Nebraska.

#13 USC @ Utah - Thursday night alert!  Will I get this posted before this game is played!?  It's not looking good.  The Trojans beat up Cal 27-9 last week.  Now that the hype machine on Barkley, Woods and Lee has slowed a bit, the Trojans can get back to playing football.  Utah got killed by AZ State two weeks ago, 37-7 and their schedule doesn't get any easier this month.  After this game, they play #25 UCLA and #14 Oregon State on the road.  It's make or break time for the Utes.  This week is break.  35-14 Trojans.

Edit: I was right, I did not get this up before the game started.  I'm not watching and don't know the score but it's only 9:30.

Cougars @ #14 Beavers - Wazzu has not beaten a decent team yet, and even lost to a terrible Colorado team.  They were pummeled by the Ducks last week 51-26. Their D is shaky at best and they have one of the worst running games in the nation.  This is a Mike Leach offense though and they will throw it around the field with reckless abandon.  The Beavers are winning, but not by much.  They won 38-35 against Arizona last week.  The Beavers will take the wood to the Cougars. 27-17 Beavers.

Cyclones @ #15 Horned Frogs - TCU QB Casey Pachall has been suspended indefinitely after his arrest on suspicion of DWI.  Freshman Trevone Boykin will get the start at QB this week instead. Boykin has only attempted 10 passes this season. No matter though, as TCU is built on playing defense, not outscoring it's opponents.  The Horned Frogs are allowing just over a TD per game thus far. The Cyclones are a similar team, with a shaky O and a D only allowing 14 points per game. This game will come down to turnovers.  Whichever D can create more of them wins.  20-13 Cyclones

GA Tech @ #15 Clemson How do you get fired as a cop in South Carolina?  Give a ticket to Clemson HC Dabo Swinney. GA Tech has lost back to back games in which they were favored. Last week they didn't even show up and were dismantled by Middle TN State 49-28.  Clemson has had no problem scoring points this year, it's stopping the other team from scoring too that's been the hard part. The Yellowjackets will have some success on the scoreboard, but not enough. It's still to early for Clemson to start their annual collapse. 45-27 Tigers.

#17 Sooners @ Red Raiders - The Sooners are looking to snap a 3 game losing streak at TX Tech. Somewhat surprisingly, the Red Raiders have one of the best D's in the country, statistically speaking. Then again, the best offense they've faced was Iowa State, so stats can be misleading.  The Red Raiders still love to pass the ball, ranking 7th in the nation.  OU has only two wins this season, against Florida A&M and UTEP, so we don't know much about them yet.  Was the loss to K State a sign of things to come or just a bump in the BCS road?  The Sooners also have their rivalry game against Texas next week, so they may get caught looking ahead.  31-27 Red Raiders.

Arizona @ #18 Stanford - Stanford got a little full of themselves after beating USC and allowed Washington to come back from 10 points down in the second half to win 17-13.  Arizona is glad to be done playing teams from the state of Oregon after back to back losses to the Ducks & Beavers.  This is the Wildcats 3rd of six games in a row against ranked opponents. The early season success and 3-0 start seem like ages ago for this team.  Arizona should be able to put up some points, but this game is crucial to both teams if they want to stay in the Pac 12 race.  34-30 Stanford.

#20 Miss St @ Kentucky - Miss State has slowly & methodically climbed the rankings, mostly by beating up on bad teams.  The best team they've faced so far is a 1-3 Auburn squad.  Kentucky is worse than Auburn.  Kentucky may be looking ahead to next week's matchup against Arkansas.  The loser will be in the SEC basement.  The winner... will be on the stairs to the basement.  37-13 Bulldogs.

UConn @ #22 Rutgers - Fightin' Snookies - Rutgers is undefeated and this guy has no problem telling you how great they are...
What he won't tell you is that Rutgers has not played a ranked team yet this year, and as of right now, won't play any ranked teams until they close out the season against current #19 Louisville.  That schedule is as soft as a baby's bottom.  Explain to me again why the Big East has an automatic BCS bid?  UConn is just waiting for bball season to role around.  What?  They're ineligible for the NCAA tournament because of poor graduation rates?  Man, I'd hate to be in Storrs, CT this winter.  Rutgers 24-13.

#24 Northwestern @ Penn State - PSU won the dairy cattle judging National Championship! Vacate THAT Emmert!  Booyah!  PSU has steadily improved this season, and would be sitting at 4-1 if they had even an average kicker.  While the D has tightened up for the Nittany Lions, the Wildcat offense is by far the best O they've faced all year.  On the flip side, this is also the best D the Wildcats have faced all year. They will do what the Ohio Bobcats did, run the read option and get to the outside, but they'll do it better and faster.  The Nittany Lions will be forced to play assignment football and keep contain.  Their secondary is going to have to make tackles in space. O'Brien's offense has steadily improved each week.  And whatever pixie dust he sprinkled on QB Matt McGloin to turn the former walk on into an efficient starting QB should be bottled and sold.  This game will come down to self inflicted mistakes.  Whichever team makes more of them loses.  28-24 Penn State.

#25 Bruins @ Golden Bears - Cal is just not very good.  Jeff Tedford's seat is getting nice and toasty in NoCal.  Their lone win was against an FCS team, and they weren't even competitive in some of their losses.  UCLA has been revived by Jim Mora Jr.  They put away Colorado easily last week, and will look to do the same this week.  42-14 Bruins.

Games of Note 

Arkansas @ Auburn - My train wreck game of the week!  Can Arkansas salvage anything from this season?  Or will the misery in Auburn continue for another week? Please someone give John L. Smith another job after this!  Please!  34 - 17 Auburn.

Virginia @ Duke - If this were a lacrosse game it'd be one of the best games of the week. Remember the Duke bball player that bought 100K worth of jewelry while he was still in school and only paid 30K of it?  No?  Didn't think so, because the Duke "Investigation" settled out of court very quietly. And the NCAA proves again it enforces rules ad hoc Just in case Duke is ever good at football, or Coach K needs a bigger venue for basketball, Duke is renovating their football stadium. Virginia has switched QB's.  Alabama transfer Philip Sims will start this week for the Cavaliers.  Can he kick start a moribund offense?  30-20 Duke.

Illinois @ Wisconsin - Illinois got their asses handed to them on their home field by Penn State last week 35-7.  The game was never even close.  Tim Beckman is going to need to steal a lot more players from PSU if he hopes to compete in the Big Ten apparently.  The Badgers lost a heart breaker to the 'Huskers last week, losing a 17 point lead in the second half.  Things have not gone as planned in Madison this year, where the rabid fan base expected another Rose Bowl and a run at the BCS Championship.  No seriously, they did.  Nobody outside the state of Wisconsin did, but don't tell Badgers fans that.  35-7 Wisconsin.

Navy @ Air Force - fans of the option will love this old school game.  This type of offense used to be the norm back when Notre Dame was a perennial powerhouse, you know, before WWII.  I love watching the military academies play because it's just fun.  These kids will run, run and run some more.  I would love to see a fumblerooskie at some point.  Air Force gave Michigan a game at the Big House and Navy was dismantled by PSU in Happy Valley.  Falcons 37-19.

Michigan @ Purdue - Not to be outdone by PSU, Michigan won the National 4-H Dairy Judging Contest.  I know what you're thinking....
I had no idea it existed either.  Purdue is in the hunt for the Big Ten Leaders division and HC Danny Hope has the team playing well.  They lost a tough game at Notre Dame, and their 3 wins were against a bunch of bad teams.  Is Purdue for real?  HC Brady Hoke is finding his second season at Michigan a little tougher than his first.  As much of a threat as QB Denard Robinson is on the ground, that ability is almost negated by his horrible passing game.  At one point against Notre Dame I believe he was intercepted on 3 consecutive passes.  I'm not talking consecutive drives, I'm talking consecutive PASSES.  Ouch. He's another Wildcat QB masquerading as a full time QB.  Look for this game to be too close for comfort for the Wolverines.  31-24 Michigan.

Upset of the Week 

Sparty @ Indiana - Sparty gouging at the buck-Eyes? What happens when Michigan State loses to Ohio state at home? An MSU professor is arrested for stripping naked in class. The professor was described as an "eccentric" mathematics teacher who "smoked meth" and never seemed quite right.  Congratulations Sparty...
26 - 24 Indiana!




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