Friday, October 12, 2012

Week 7 Predictions

We are just about at the half way point of the college football season already.  We have some traditional powers near the top of the rankings and some new comers to the BCS party.  The first BCS rankings will be released October 14, and thus starts the sprint to the finish.  Also. something that has never happened before in college football has occurred, No Big Ten team in coach's poll for first time ever.

We'll have some historical rivalry games, some tough conference games and then conference championships all to decide which teams get to play in the lucrative BCS bowls, and thus, get the most money and prestige.  Of course, the actual kids that play in the games won't make shit, but the bowl sponsors and committees can't wait to cash their checks!  But I digress.

Halfway through the season, let's see which coaches are in some deep doo doo and which coaches are due for a raise....

The Good

Bill O'Brien (Penn State) - Has any coach ever faced more adversity before even coaching his first game than Bill O'Brien?  He walked into arguably the biggest scandal ever in college football and thus far has done a tremendous job. He lost his starting RB, WR, Kicker and Punter along with some other kids that provided depth and all he's done is win 4 straight games.  PSU is one decent kicker away from being 5-1.  He hasn't just won games, he's dominated some teams.  After taking Illinois behind the woodshed on their own field, it's no wonder Illinois was camped out in University Park trying to recruit O'Brien's players.  PSU has some talent on the roster and no team in the country has more heart than the seniors on this team.  After two early losses, things could've unraveled quickly but O'Brien has righted the ship. QB Matt McGloin's transformation from inconsistent former walk on to a team leader and consistent play maker is nothing short of a coaching miracle.  Imagine what O'Brien can do for a highly rated QB if this is what he's done for McGloin!   Obviously PSU will not win out, and they won't go bowling, but they'll come to play every game and the future is looking better in Happy Valley than it has since JoePa's glory days. As for the PSU haters... nothing you can do about it....

Brian Kelly (Notre Dame) - Could Kelly actually be the coach to lead the Irish back to their historic pinnacle!?  No team has played a tougher schedule this season than the Irish, and it doesn't get any easier (except for Pitt, they suck).  Kelly is known as an offensive guru, but it's the Irish D, led by LB Manti Te'o, that has them winning.  Notre Dame is only giving up an average of 7.8 points per game.  Good for 2nd in the nation. Their last game of the season is at USC, which  may very well decide which one of those teams is going to the BCS. Maybe, just maybe, Kelly can finally get the Irish fans to stop comparing him to Lou Holtz.







Bill Snyder (K State) - Snyder has the midas touch in little Manhattan.  After taking a three year hiatus from the program in 2005, Snyder returned to K State and once again has them contending in the Big XII.  His team is currently ranked 6th in the nation and if they can get by Iowa State this weekend, they'll be headed to a showdown with #5 West Virginia in what could be the highest scoring college football game ever.  K State is not an easy place to win, but Snyder has done so year after year.  Could this be the year he breaks through to the BCS?

Paul Rhoads (Iowa State) - Standing in the way of the Wildcats date with WVU is Paul Rhoads Iowa State squad.  ISU is another place that's tough to win at.  They don't have a natural recruiting base like USC or the southern schools, it's not considered a "hip" place to play, and their in state rival is historically much more successful than they are.  But nonetheless, Rhoads has this Cyclones team playing well.  They'll be getting into the meat of their schedule starting this week, and if they can hand the Wildcats their first loss, they'll be ranked in the top 25 and a serious contender in the Big XII.  Look for Rhoads to get some offers from bigger school should his team make it to the Big XII Championship.

David Cutliffe (Duke) - Best known as Peyton Manning's QB coach while at Tennessee, Cutliffe has done what no man thought possible, turned Duke into an ACC contender.  Duke's lone loss was at Stanford, not a bad loss by any means.  The Blue Devils play an all of a sudden very beatable Va Tech squad this weekend. If they can manage to win in Blacksburg, they face their Tobacco Road rival North Carolina after that.  Win that one, and they'll have a showdown with Florida State. They have a chance to play in the ACC championship game, which is nothing short of a minor miracle at such a huge basketball school.  We'll see how Cutliffe's squad performs down the stretch, but Duke should be bowling this year for the first time in 17 years.

The Bad 

Frank Beamer (Va Tech) - The Hokies were ranked as high as #13 this year before dropping 3 out of their last 4 games.  Nothing seems to be going right in Blacksburg this year.  Beamer built his program on playing tough D, running the ball and playing great special teams. None of that has happened this year.  QB Logan Thomas has been inconsistent and the running game really misses RB David Wilson, who is now with the NY Giants.  We'll see if Beamer can salvage his season and if highly respected DC Bud Foster can get his defense playing like the Hokies of previous years.  Va Tech's best win this year has come against ...

Paul Johnson (Ga Tech) - ... the Yellowjackets of Georgia Tech.  How bad are things in this program right now?  DC Al Groh was fired this week and his replacement, Charles Kelly, is not shedding the "interim" tag any time soon. Tech's triple option attack is still producing points and yards, but they can't stop anybody.  Literally.  On their 3 game losing streak they are giving up at least 42 points every game, including Middle Tennessee dropping 49 on them.  If Johnson doesn't figure out how to play some D soon, he'll be the one looking for a new job at the end of the year.

Charlie Weis (Kansas) - Fatty Weis has apparently already given up on this years team.  He practiced without his seniors this past weekend. That's 20 kids that have been in the program for years, and Charlie has decided they are no longer worth his time to coach.  It's interesting that QB Dayne Crist was recruited by Weis out of high school and transferred from Notre Dame to Kansas to follow his coach, and has still played horribly this year.  Is there a more over rated coach in football?  Which reminds me, remember this guy....
The Cub on the right is Jimmy Clausen, Weis's prized QB recruit who started as a freshman at Notre Dame and was supposed to be the next Joe Montana.  He was arguable worse than the previous Irish freshman QB to anointed "The One", Ron Powlus.  Now he sits on the bench and watch's Cam Newton play football. QB guru indeed.

Frank Spaziani (Boston College) - B.C. is hiring a new AD, which is always bad news for a struggling coach.  New AD's like to make their own mark on their programs and that starts with hiring their choice of HC.  Coach Spaz's team hasn't beat an FBS team yet, including a loss to previously winless Army last weekend.  The good news is the ACC is not very tough this year, the bad news B.C. still has to play Florida State & Notre Dame.  Unless coach Spaz can pull off the upset against one of them, it looks like he'll be heading elsewhere in a few months.

Joker Phillips (Kentucky) - Kentucky is first and foremost a basketball school.  They don't expect much on the grid iron, but that doesn't mean they expect NOTHING.  The Wildcats lone win this year was against MAC foe Kent State.  Granted Kentucky plays in the SEC, and has lost to four ranked teams, but they have not even been competitive in those losses.  A matchup with the train wreck that is Arkansas will determine who's the SEC bottom feeder this year.  If Kentucky can't at least be competitive, the Joker will be a midnight toker somewhere other than Lexington.

The Ugly 

Jon Embree (Colorado) - If not for a epic 4th quarter collapse by Wazzu, the Buffs would be 0-5 right now. They haven't even been competitive in any of their games, including a home loss to FCS Sacramento State.  The going only gets tougher for the Embree, as he faces 3 ranked teams in the next 4 weeks.  The Buffs could very well be looking at a one win season and finding a coach to take over a once proud program.

Gene Chizik (Auburn) - That sound you  heard last weekend was the Auburn football program imploding ...
Since winning the national title, Chizik is now 9-9 over all, and currently 0-3 in the SEC.  Add in a loss to the disaster that is the Arkansas program last weekend, and things are looking glum in Auburn these days.  The Tigers have brought in some good recruiting classes the past couple of seasons, but have been unable to capitalize on any of the talent.  Auburn fans blamed former DC Ted Roof and OC Gus Malzahn for many of the problems, but with those two gone, it's all on Chizik to right the ship or he'll be walking the plank this off season.

John L. Smith (Arkansas) - Is there really anything more that needs to be said about this program? Oh yeah, John L. Smith foot in mouth disease. Arkansas dominated in a win against Auburn last week, winning 24-7, which makes you wonder what the hell Auburn HC Gene Chizik is thinking.  Who wins a national title and then gets embarrassed by John L. Smith a couple years later?  I am  hoping Arkansas wins just enough for Smith to keep his job.  It's way too much fun having him coach.  He'd be missed.

Top 25 Action

#1 'Bama @ Mizzou - With the initial BCS rankings due out in a few days, the question is, can anyone beat 'Bama?  The national title runs through Tuscaloosa.  'Bama has been the most consistent team week in and week out, and Saban seems determined not to let his team have a down week.  In fact, 'Bama treats teams scoring on them as if they've personally offended them and their families.  If Saban wins his 3rd title at 'Bama, like it or not, the discussion will then turn to whether his is one of the greatest college football coaches of all time.  Mizzou has been inconsistent this year, winning one week and losing the next all year.  Last week they lost to Vanderbilt, and couldn't get anything going offensively.  'Bama's D is WAY better than Vandy's.  Look for a the Tide to Roll again this week.  45-7 Crimson Tide.

#3 South Carolina @ #9 LSU - USCe is coming off a beat down of Georgia.  LSU is coming off a disappointing loss in the Swamp.  This game has all the making of a role reversal from last week.  This is week 2 of a murderers row of tough games for LSU.  They face 4 top 25 teams in a row.  As always is the case with the Tigers, they are relying heavily on their D to shut down opposing teams while their O does just enough to not lose the game.  High octane, spread offenses are all the rage in college football today, but the SEC has been putting the old saying of "Defense Wins Championships" to the test.  All of the SEC schools ranked in the top 25 are in the top 15 nationally of points allowed per game:
School           PPG         Rank
Alabama        7.0             1st
S Carolina     10.5            4th
Florida          11.4            6th
LSU              12.8           8th
Miss St          13.4          11th
Texas A&M  14.8          14th

As a fan, I'd love to see WVU's offense against 'Bama's D.  As for this game, look for another low scoring affair with not much running room for the Gamecocks star RB Marcus Lattimore.  With two tough D's, scoring will be at a premium and turnovers will be huge.  20-14 LSU.

#4 Florida @ Vanderbilt - The Gators proved they belong in the BCS discussion, dismissing LSU 14-6 in the Swamp.  Florida's formula was old school, running the ball a lot and playing great defense.  QB Jeff Driskel attempted only 12 passes in the game.  Vandy is not LSU, but is no slouch on D.  The Commodores problem is scoring points.  Florida won't help remedy that issue this week.  27-3 Gators.

#5 WVU @ Tx Tech - WVU has taken the complete opposite approach to winning than the SEC.  They will just outscore you, no matter what.  If you put up 63, they'll score 70.  Put up 45, they'll score 48 on you.  They treat defense the way this guy treats clothing....
Completely optional. And that cross totally makes the outfit.  Without it, he's just some Greek guy going for a stroll through town, but with the cross, you respect the shit out of him for his deeply held religious beliefs.  And the pornstache doesn't hurt his credibility either.

Geno Smith has been on fire.  He's got the clear lead for the Heisman at the half way point and it's not really close.  He's thrown a ridiculous 24 TD's but more importantly, ZERO interceptions.  On top of that, he's only taken 7 sacks. As if WVU's aerial assault wasn't enough, last week they proved their ground game can be just as lethal.  Texas wanted to take away the deep pass, so WVU handed off to RB Andrew Buie who torched the Longhorns for 207 yards and 2 TD's.  Buie had never even had a 100 yard effort in any game before exploding last week. It's a pick your poison proposition for the Red Raiders this week.  Their D was exposed by the Sooners last week as they lost 41-20.  Unless WVU has a huge let down after their big win last week, they should be lighting plenty of couches in Morgantown this week.  52-27 Mountaineers.

#6 K State @ Iowa State - Some highlights from the Kansas State Fair:
                                                              Best Turkey
                                                                  Best Bovine
                                                                       Best Pig
                                                            Best Animal Husbandry
K State easily dispatched Fatty Weis and Kansas last week 56-16.  Iowa State is a much tougher test. K State is playing well in all facets of the game, save for passing.  But the Wildcats offense is not built to be an aerial assault.  More importantly, K State is playing solid D. So are the Cyclones, only surrendering 15.8 points per game, good for 19th in the nation.  The Cyclones O is not as dangerous as K State, but the defenses match up well. Iowa State beat a TCU team that was in disarray without their starting QB last week. Last year, QB Collin Klein was sacked 42 times.  This year, through 5 games, Klein has only been sacked twice.  That is why he's gone from inconsistent to dark horse Heisman candidate.  This game will be closer than expected.  27-20 K State.

If you happen to be in Kansas and want to fit in with the locals, eat a few of these Krispy Kreme cheeseburgers and just wait for your arteries to harden.

You'll actually be able to feel your heart start to clog.  If you're in front of a mirror, do a before and after pick,  you'll see the increased weight in a matter of hours. It's only a matter of time before Krispy Kreme and McDonald's team up to bring this tasty treat to kids meals!

#17 Stanford @ #7 Notre Dame - 'Bama's D is ranked #1 in the nation, but I'll bet nobody would guess Notre Dame is right behind them at #2, giving up only 7.8 points per game. The offense is still trying to find it's identity, but the Irish D knows who it is, a shut down D led by LB Manti Te'o.  Te'o is getting tons of hype, which is par for the course for star players for the Irish, and is on course for some post season awards.  Irish QB Everett Golson avoided getting Wally Pipped by QB Tommy Rees last week.  Rees got the start, but Golson came off the bench to lead the Irish to a 41-3 blowout of Miami.  Stanford was down by 14 with 9 minutes left against Arizona last week.  The Cardinal then scored 14 unanswered points to send the game to OT, and sealed the win with a 21 yard TD run in OT.  A loss last week would've sunk Stanford's season. The loss at Washington is looking more like a let down after beating USC very week.  Nothing would make the Cardinal happier than handing the Irish their first loss.  19-14 Stanford.

#8 Buckeyes @ Hoosiers -Buckeyes QB Braxton Miller is a one man wrecking crew for the OSU offense.  As goes Miller, so goes the OSU offense.  He's leading the team in rushing and passing, and would probably  lead in receiving too if they had someone to throw him the ball.  Miller is a load to stop on the run, and containing him is not easy.  OSU's offense is run first, run second, and then play action pass.  It's not complicated, but it's highly effective.  They sliced through the 'Huskers D for 63 points last week.  The Hoosiers are the typical Hoosiers, currently sitting at 2-3.
45-3 Buckeyes.

#10 Beavers @ Cougars - Beavers QB Sean Mannion, who's been at the top of his game this year, is out with a meniscus tear in his knee. He's not done for the year, but with an offense based on throwing the ball, it will certainly affect the Beavers game.  BYU is a shocking 3rd in the nation in D, giving up only 8.8 points per game.  This could spell trouble for the Beavers, however, BYU also lost it's starting QB Tayson Hill to a season ending LCL tear in his knee.  Look for a defensive battle as these two teams look for their backup QB's to put enough points on the board for the W.  13-7 Beavers.

#11 Trojans @ Huskies -The Trojans started slow against the Utes before turning it on for a relatively comfortable 38-28 win a week ago. WR Marqise Lee continues to be one of the most dangerous players in the nation when he gets the ball, constantly finding way to get open and then refusing to go down after the catch.  If you double up on Lee, WR Robert Woods can also hurt you, and QB Matt Barkley is capable of getting both of them the ball in tight spots.  Will the real Washington Huskies please stand up?  UW beat Stanford, got killed by Oregon, and now face get a home game v. a USC team trying to get back into the national title discussion.  It's hard to tell which Huskies team will show up, as they don't do anything particularly well as a team. The Huskies always have a chance when playing at home, but would have a better chance if they weren't playing USC.  34-17 USC.



Boston College @ #12 FSU - Two teams coming off of two bad losses last week.  B.C. lost to Army at home, and FSU blew a 16 point half time lead at NC State and lost 17-16.  The 'Noles can't seem to shake that upset bug that has plagued them for a better party of a decade.  One week they look like title contenders, and the next week fail to show up against a team they'd beat 9 times out of 10.  Look for FSU to bounce back against B.C., and for B.C. to start looking for a new head coach soon.  45-10 Seminoles. 







#13 Sooners v. #15 Longhorns - The Red River Rivalry! Because calling it a "Shootout" would promote gun violence the way this kid promotes thug life...
The 'Horns hung tough with WVU last week, but just couldn't put up enough points.  The Sooners are beginning their slow climb back up the rankings, beating Tx Tech in Lubbock last week 41-20.  The Sooners offense is balance, with their passing attack ranked 37th and running game ranked 36th in the nation. The winner of this game is still in the Big XII title hunt, the loser will be playing the role of spoiler the rest of the season. 29-24 Texas.

#18 Louisville @ Pitt - How do you think Big East coaches pitch playing in their conference?  "Come play in the Big East, it's the easiest path to a BCS game." Louisville continue to climb the rankings almost by default.  Pitt might be the toughest team they've played thus far, and they just lost to 'Cuse 14-13 on a Friday night. I guess if the quality of your program is that of a high school, why not play on Friday nights just to fit in?  Pitt sucks, but in the Big East, any team can lose on any given weekend.  Pitt should have a huge home field advantage...
if you consider empty seats to be an advantage.

24-13 Louisville.

Volunteers @ #19 Mississippi State -Tennessee is coming off a bye week and playing it's second of four games against ranked teams in a row.  HC Derek Dooley is basically fighting for his job at this point.
With 'Bama and South Carolina coming up next, this may be the Volunteers best chance at beating a ranked team.  TN hasn't been bad on offense, their D is atrocious.  The Bulldogs D is solid, but they have yet to play any good teams yet.  If they can take care of business this week, they should be able to handle Middle TN State next week and will head to Tuscaloosa to face the Tide at 7-0.  Tennessee is probably the best team they've faced thus far and will give us a better idea if they are a contender or pretender in the SEC this year. 34-20 Bulldogs.

Syracuse @ #20 Rutgers - Why is Rutgers known as Slutgers?  Glad you asked. And apparently enough people have asked that same question that the Rutgers administration has addressed the issue on the University's web site: Sexually Transmitted Infections - Fact v. Myth.

Rutgers hasn't lost this year, but it's hard to lose when you don't play anyone.  The Scarlet Knights are only giving up 10.8 points per game, good for 5th in the nation.  The one team they played with a pulse on offense, Arkansas, put up 26 on them without their starting QB.  This is an instance of stats not telling the entire story.  'Cuse isn't exactly good, having only beaten Stony Brook and Pitt, but Doug Marrone is a good coach. Fear not 'Cuse fans, basketball is right around the corner, and I'm sure Asst Coach Bernie Fine has stopped molesting children so you don't have to worry about NCAA sanctions, or even an investigation.  19-7 Rutgers.

Fordham @ #21 Cincy - I'm convinced Big East teams are ranked by default.  Would any other conference with three undefeated teams have them ranked so low?  Lousiville, Rutgers and Cincy have yet to lose, and yet, we still know little to nothing about any of them because they refuse to play anybody.  You almost want to take pity on the Big East.  Their fans actually believe their own propaganda that their conference is doing just fine because they have three undefeated teams.  Cincy's marquee non-conference match up this year was a win against Va Tech, a squad that has looked worse and worse as the season has progressed.  Other than that, they've played two FCS teams and two MAC teams.  The Big East is a joke and will continue to be until they play somebody. 34-10 Bearcats.

#22 Texas A&M @ #23 La Tech - What's this!? A top 25 match up featuring a WAC team!?  Karl Malone U has been lighting up the scoreboard this year.  They are the best offense nobody has seen in college football. And much like WVU, they could care less about playing defense.  The Bulldogs are putting up 53.2 points per game, 3rd in the nation.  They're giving up 35.8 points per game, 109th in the nation. This game was rescheduled from Aug 30th and these squads are not the same two teams that would have opened the season against each other. A&M is by far the best defense La Tech will face this year. They are only giving up two TD's per game while their offense is averaging 44 points per contest.  This game should be high scoring, but only for the Aggies. La Tech's stay in the top 25 will be brief. 59-24 A&M.

Fresno State @ #24 Boise St - While on their way to the Southern Miss game last week, the Boise equipment truck gave new meaning to Oh Shit!
Apparently a suicidal bovine wandered in front of the truck, and what you see above is the remnants of said bovine.  RIP bovine hit by Boise State equipment truck.

Since their opening game loss to Sparty, Boise has reeled off 4 wins in a row. The Broncos will fit right in with the Big East when they switch conferences, as Sparty is the only ranked team on the Broncos schedule this year.

The Bulldogs offense is led by QB Derek Carr, the youngest brother of former #1 overall pick David Carr.  And like his older sibling, Derek is capable of slinging the pig skin.  The Bulldogs O is airing it out to the tune of 315 yards and 39.5 points per game. Boise has been playing solid D all year, and is better at home than they are on the road.  It appears as though the smurf turf does provide a home field advantage, and has inspired other school to follow suit:
                                          Eastern Washington University roles out Red Carpet 
Boise 30-24

Illinois @ #25 Michigan - Apparently not only does Tim Beckman get demolished at home by a Penn State team whom he sent his entire staff to try to recruit to come to his program, he's also a walking NCAA violation. Tim Beckman commits NCAA violation on the sideline, loses again.The Wolverines are looking to get it's offense in gear for a second week in a row.  QB Denard Robinson continues to be a dynamic runner and a lackluster passer. He's a smaller version of the Buckeyes QB Braxton Miller.  D-Rob went nuts against the Boilermakers last week, racking up 235 yards rushing and another 105 through the air as Michigan won easily 44-13.  The Not-so-Fightin' Illini are riding a 3 game losing streak, including back to back ass kickings from Penn State and Wisconsin.  Things won't get any easier for HC Tim Beckman's squad in the Big House this week. 38-13 Wolverines.

Games of Note

Auburn @ Ole Miss - Auburn's program may officially be off the tracks after losing at home to a bad Arkansas team 24-7.  The Tigers offense is atrocious.  They can't run, can't pass, and can't score.  Ole Miss isn't a good team, but they gave Texas A&M a hell of a game before blowing a 10 point fourth quarter lead and losing 30-27 last week.  Look for Ole Miss to take out some frustration on a Tigers squad that may go 0-8 in the SEC if they don't figure things out soon.  27-10 Rebels.

Duke @ Va Tech - How long has it been since Duke has been to a bowl game?  Since the Blue Devils lost 34-20 to Wisconsin in the Hall of Fame Bowl in 1995, they have remade a movie that Sylvester Stallone starred in.  That's right, they are now remaking Stallone movies. I'm looking forward to the reboot of Demolition Man sometime in the next few years. At 5-1, Duke is looking to break through in the ACC.  Va Tech is down this year and has lost two in a row.  Could this be the year since 1981 that the Blue Devils beat the Hokies?  23-20 Hokies.

Kentucky @ Arkansas - The Battle for the Basement! Arkansas is bad. but they finally stopped a 4 game skid that has demolished their season and demoralized their program.  Kentucky is just waiting for hoops season to start. 27-14 Razorbacks.

Wazzu @ Cal - Not much happens in Pullman, WA.  Which could be why the Wazzu football program is ground zero for the zombie apocalypse. Wazzu has been on a 3 game skid since allowing a bad Colorado squad a come back win a few weeks ago. Cal put a whooping on UCLA last week 43-17.  Neither of these teams are very good.  It's more a matter of who sucks less.  34-28 Golden Bears.

Dawg of the Week

Iowa @ Sparty - Being an Iowa RB has been a curse in recent years. From injuries, to suspensions, to academics, the Hawkeyes have had trouble keeping RB's on the field.  They finally found a solution in Sophomore Mark Weisman though. He's averaging 7 yards per carry and has 7 TD's thus far. He is pretty much all the Hawkeyes have on offense, with QB James Vandenburg struggling all season. Iowa has struggled to put up points, but is still playing good defense. Sparty has been playing solid D this year too. Sparty is only giving up 15.8 points per game, good for 15th in the nation.  If these two teams played in the SEC, the story would be about how great their defenses are playing, how they're throw back teams, blah blah blah. But since they play in the Big Ten, the story will be about how bad their offenses are and how they have no speed, blah blah blah. Sparty if favored by 10 at home, but I like the Hawkeyes to pull off the upset this week. 24-21 Iowa.

Congrats Hawkeyes, but as we still know...





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