Week 12 Predictions

I came across an interesting article on the Tebow phenomenon and the driving force behind it, ESPN.

Death of Journalism at ESPN

Whether  you agree or disagree with the premise of the article, you can't deny that every year a team or player is hyped up before setting foot on the field, and sometimes even after they set foot on the field and look terrible the hype continues.  The media can't help obsessing over certain players and teams despite their lack of success. Sometimes the hype does match the performance, and other times it's falls way, way short.  As such, I present to you the HYpe/PErformance Ratio, or HyPeR, a non-scientific look at the difference between how hyped an athlete or team is compared to the on field performance.

The ratio is scored on a scale of 1 to 10.  1 being no hype at all, meaning the athlete comes out of nowhere to be a legend, think Tom Brady, and 10 being an athlete hyped since we can remember, think LeBron James.  1 in performance means the athlete did absolutely nothing on the field, a gigantic bust, ala Ryan Leaf.  A 10 is obviously a legendary athlete, think Peyton Manning. A good HyPeR, is 1:10 or .1; A bad HyPeR ratio is 10:1 or 10, therefore the lower the score, the better an athlete or teams HyPeR.  Get it?  No?  I don't have time to explain further so you'll just have to trust me...

Some parameters, I'm focusing on players for this season only.  The ideal player for a top spot is a player you've probably never heard of now leading his team a possible championship. The ideal player for a bottom spot is a player everyone has heard, someone considered a possible Heisman contender in the pre-season, who has fallen far short of expectations.

Bottom 3 HyPeR Athletes (most hype, least performance) 

Dishonorable mention - Auburn, West Virginia, the entire Big Ten, VA Tech, WVU QB Geno Smith, Sooners QB Landry Jones, Michigan QB Denard Robinson, Kansas HC Fatty Weis

3. Arkansas Razorbacks & former HC Bobby Petrino - Hype: 8 Performance: 4 Ratio: 2 - What a year in Fayeteville.  The Hogs were ranked #10 in the nation in the preseason.  They were coming off an appearance in the Sugar Bowl last season and were poised to ascend to the top of the SEC. QB Tyler Wilson was considered a Heisman candidate and possible 1st round draft pick.  RB Knile Davis was back from injury and supposed to return to his All SEC form of the 2010 season.  Then HC Bobby Petrino crashed his motorcycle...

And the entire Arkansas program crashed with him. At first, Petrino claimed he was alone during the accident.  Then it was discovered he was not alone, Petrino had lied about it. The subsequent investigation uncovered Petrino's affair with former all SEC Arkansas volleyball player Jessica Dorrell....

who was engaged at the time of the affair too!  Along with, ahem, "stuffing the hog", Petrino also gave her $20K in cash as a "gift".  Petrino was fired in April and replaced by, and you just can't make this shit up... John L. Smith!  At the same time, everyone in East Lansing burst out in laughter when his hiring was announced.  Needless to say, the Hogs started 1-4 including an OT loss to LA-Monroe.  They did manage to beat the only two SEC teams worse than them, Kentucky and Auburn, and are currently sitting at 4-6.  After all the hype surrounding Petrino and the Arkansas program, going 4-6 under John L. Smith is not something anyone saw coming.

2. USC Trojans - Hype: 9 Performance: 3 Ratio: 3 - The Hype machine started early and often for the Boys of Troy.  USC was ranked #1 in the AP pre-season top 25.  QB Matt Barkley was a leading Heisman contender after flirting with the NFL draft last year, RB Silas Redd was a much hyped transfer that was supposed to solidify the Trojan ground game, while WR's Marqise Lee and Robert Woods did damage through the air.  Lee has surpassed expectations and is clearly in a class of his own and one of the best WR's in the country.  Meanwhile, USC is 7-3, 5-3 in the PAC 12 and on the outside looking in for a BCS Championship. Add in some controversy of a student manager deflating the footballs against Oregon, allegedly of his own free will, and switching uniforms against Colorado, and you can see why Lane Kiffin has a reputation as a Coach that embraces the gray areas of the rule book. The Trojans can redeem themselves a bit with a win against #3 Notre Dame in the last week of the season.  And with a win against UCLA this week they can play in the PAC 12 title game and make a BCS bowl, but when you were hyped as a title contender by everyone, those prizes are like getting a participation certificate.

1. Tyrann "Honey Badger" Matheiu (formerly of LSU) - Hype: 10 Performance: It should be Zero, but only Chuck Norris can divide by Zero, so.1 Ratio: 100 - Honey Badger was a Heisman finalist last year and was considered one of the most exciting players in the nation heading into this season, then Matheiu was dismissed from the team on August 10 for a violation of team rules, which turned out to be failed drug tests.  Matheiu considered transferring to another school to play right away, but loved LSU so much he swore he'd get his head on straight and stayed at LSU.  Matheiu entered drug rehab but left a month later.  Then, on October 25, he and three other former LSU players were arrested for possession of marijuana.  Matheiu went from Heisman contender to out of football.  Why?  As Afroman would say... Because I got high, because I got high, becauuuse I got higggghhhh..... La da da da da da La, Da Daaa...

Top 3 HyPeR Athletes...(least hype, best performance) 

Honorable Mentions - LA Tech, UCLA RB Johnathan Franklin, PSU WR Allen Robinson, Oregon State Beavers, UCLA Bruins

3. Oregon QB Marcus Mariota - Hype: 3 Performance: 8 Ratio: .375 The Redshirt freshman has taken control of the Ducks offense and run it like a finely tuned Ferrari.  A native of Hawaii, not exactly a hot bed of college QB's, Marcus was recruited by mostly PAC 12 schools, but was only offered by Memphis, Washington, and obviously Oregon. Coming into the season there was a QB competition in Eugene.  Nobody knew who would replace QB Darron Thomas, or if they had anyone that could run HC Chip Kelly's offense as well as Thomas did.  In stepped Mariota, who won the job and has not looked back.  He's No. 1 in the nation in passing efficiency, completed 72% of his passes and 28 TD's and only 5 INT's.  He's also added 516 yards and 3 TD's on the ground.  If Mariota can deliver the Ducks their first BCS Championship as a redshirt freshman, he'll jump to the top of this list and into the lore of all time great college QB's.


2. Kansas State Wildcats - Hype: 3 Performance: 9 Ratio: .33 - While QB Collin Klein was somewhat of a known quantity coming into the season, having accounted for 40 TD's and over 3,000 combined yards last season, nobody could have predicted the Wildcats would be 10-0 and two wins away from playing for a national championship.  In fact, the hype never really started until week 4, when KSU beat Oklahoma in Norman 24-19.  HC Bill Snyder is the leading candidate for Coach of the Year, and rightfully so.  The Wildcats must still face a potent Baylor offense and a very dangerous Texas team, but to even be in this position is nothing short of a minor miracle in Little Manhattan.

1. QB Johnny Manziel (Texas A&M) - Hype: 1 Performance: 8  Ratio: .125 - Be honest, if you aren't an Aggies fan or living in College Station  you had no idea who this kid was until last weekend when he did the unthinkable.  In fact, Manziel has had the opposite career arc than the Honey Badger this year.  After getting arrested and charged with 3 misdemeanors in connection with a fight in June, Manziel won the starting QB job in the fall and has thrust himself into the Heisman discussion. The redshirt freshman went into Tuscaloosa and beat the mighty Crimson Tide on their own field.  He did have some good offers coming out of high school, Oregon being the most notable, but at 6-0 175 lbs, he was considered an undersized 3 star QB. Lucky for A&M, he chose to stay in state. Now that he's skyrocketed into the hype stratosphere he won't be on this list going forward, but based on past hype and performance, Johnny has earned the top spot right now.

And he's also earned the top spot for Halloween costumes.  Is it just me, or are the girls in the pic on the right not even in costume?

Top 25 Action

#1 K State @ Baylor - For the first time this year we have a new #1!  The Wildcats take over the top spot in the BCS rankings and are two wins away from playing for a national championship.  Absolutely NOBODY out there would've predicted this, not even the ancient Mayans.

Sidenote: if 2012 is the end of the world, I'm really hoping for a Ghostbusters like ending.  The Traveler has come!  Choose and perish!

K State's D has been solid all year, but Baylor can light up any scoreboard.  The pressure is on K State to perform, and many a team before them has cracked under the BCS pressure.  Can Klein and K State close the deal?  They'll have to start by outscoring Baylor, because you're not going to shut down the Bears offense. The Bears D is bad, giving up almost 40 points per game.  Klein & company should be able to score but will have to keep on scoring to win this one.  They'll also have to be careful not to look ahead to a gigantic game against Texas the following week.  49-36 K State.

#13 Stanford @ #2 Oregon - The Ducks have a bit tougher path to the BCS championship.  They must face two ranked teams in their last two games, including in state rival Oregon State,  plus a PAC 12 Championship game after that.  The Cardinal & Beavers would like nothing better than to spoil the Ducks perfect season.  Nobody has been able to slow down the Ducks O this season and Stanford knows something nobody else does, this week will be no different.  45 - 31 Ducks.

Wake Forest @ #3 Notre Dame - The Irish are the opposite of the top two teams, with only an average offense and a very tough defense.  The Irish are giving up only 11 points per game, ranking them 1st in the nation.  But as good as the D has been, the Irish have been very lucky this  year. A missed FG here, and bad call there has saved the Irish from at least 3 losses. It's better to be lucky than good, and HC Brian Kelly's Lucky Charms must have double the clovers this year...

Wake is bad and the Irish D should have no problem shutting them down.  But the Irish like playing close games against inferior opponents, and could get caught looking ahead to a huge game at USC next week.  24 - 13 Notre Dame.

W Carolina @ #4 Alabama - Like when your Grandmother uses Google...

'Bama was not ready for what they saw last week.  'Bama looked like anything but the #1 team in the land, as the Aggies took it to them in the first half, opening up a 20-0 lead in the 1st quarter.  The Tide didn't fold, getting back to 20-14 at the half. The game was close, 20-17 entering the 4th, but the Tide had no answer for Aggies QB Johnny Manziel.  The Tide almost completed the comeback, but QB AJ McCarron was intercepted on the goal line with under two minutes left.  'Bama only dropped to 4th in the BCS, and with 3 teams ahead of them that still have 7 games between them to play, the chances are still good that they'll be back in the top two before the end of the season.  After all, they do play in the SEC and it's in the BCS & NCAA bylaws that an SEC team must always play in the BCS championship.  This appears to be a de facto bye week in the SEC as most teams are playing FCS opponents.  The Catamounts are 1-9 this season playing a FCS schedule.  This is a bad week for WCU to catch an angry Tide team. 55-0 Roll Tide.

Georgia Southern @ #5 Georgia - Georgia wrapped up the SEC East title last week with a win against Auburn. The Bulldogs de facto bye week comes against a GA Southern team that is 8-2 on the season.  The Bulldogs are still in the hunt for a BCS birth, either by winning the SEC Championship or an at-large bid.  They have an outside shot at getting into the title game as well.  Despite a birth in the SEC Championship, the Bulldogs must win out if they hope to achieve more than just an SEC East title.  47-13 Bulldogs.

Jacksonville State @ #6 Florida - Florida is the first program to benefit from the New NCAA Adopt-A-Player program! To get around NCAA rules that prevent college athletes from getting improper benefits, all they need to do is be adopted by their boosters.  20 year old DT, and possible first round draft pick Shariff Floyd now has new parents, and all the gifts and benefits his new parental units can lavish upon him. There is no violation for providing said athlete with any of the aforementioned benefits because in the eyes of the law, and more importantly the NCAA, they are his legal parents and can give him anything they want. Gators QB Jeff Driskel has an ankle injury that will sideline him this week and possibly next. Sophomore Jacoby Brissett is the next man up for the Gators and will get the start at QB.  The Gators are another 1 loss SEC team hoping to get into the BCS.  This week should be an easy W for Florida.  56-7 Gators.

Ole Miss @ #7 LSU - The Tigers have two very winnable games left and must hope for some teams ahead of them to lose to have a shot at a BCS at-large birth.  QB Zach Mettenberger has played well the past two weeks and looks to be getting into a rhythm with WR Jarvis Landry.  The D is still solid and should be able to shut down the Rebels.  Meanwhile, the Rebels have made more news off the field for their racist chants in response to the election last week than anything they've done on the field. I don't know why that's a surprise to anyone, just check out the Ole Miss tailgates...

31-10 LSU

Sam Houston State @ #8 Texas A&M - The NKOT(SEC)B took down the bully last week!

A&M thoroughly outplayed the Tide in Tuscaloosa last week en route to the upset of the year, 29-24.  QB AJ McCarron threw his first two INT's of the season, including a crushing INT on 4th & goal inside the A&M 10 yard line that sealed the game for the Aggies. A&M can't help but have somewhat of a let down after such a huge win last week, but should still be able to handle Sam Houston. 48 - 10 Aggies.

Wofford @ #9 South Carolina - The Gamecocks de facto bye week brings the Wofford Terriers to Williams-Brice Stadium.  Despite the loss of RB Marcus Lattimore, the Gamecocks offense got rolling last week against Arkansas en route to a 38-20 win.  The Gamecocks finished 6-2 in the SEC and like many other SEC teams, need some help to get a BCS at large bid.  This is a nice tune up game before they take on their in state rival Clemson next week in what should be a top 10 matchup.  45-13 USCe.

#10 Seminoles @ Terrapins - How bad is the QB situation for the 'Pins? Maryland is starting a LB at QB.   Freshman LB Shawn Petty, an option QB in high school, will get the start this weekend. That's how bad the situation is in College Park this year.  Ouch, that hurts!

The 'Pins are on a 4 game skid and it's going to be tough for them to get another win this season.On the flip side of the field, 'Noles QB EJ Manuel has played well all season.  The senior has 19 TD's to 5 INT's with 2,641 yards and a 68% completion rate.  FSU can clinch a birth in the ACC Championship game with a win this week.  45-7 Florida State.

Wolfpack @ #11 Clemson - NC State is your typical average team, 6-4 overall and 3-3 in the ACC.  Senior QB Mike Glennon leads a potent passing attack ranked 27th in the country. Glennon has also been rising up some NFL draft boards, and at 6'6" 232 lbs, he has the size and arm to play in the league.  Clemson QB Tajh Boyd has been even better than Glennon this season, completing 68% of his passes for 2941 yards and 28 TD's to 9 INT's.  He's also added 363 yards and 5 TD's on the ground.  The Tigers have lost to the only ranked team they've played this year, Florida State. They've been really good at beating up on some bad teams, but we'll see if they are BCS worthy when they end their regular season against South Carolina next week.  As for this week, 34 - 17 Clemson.

#12 Sooners @ Mountaineers - For WVU, this season has been a tale of two halves.  The first half was glorious!  The offense was unstoppable and there was talk of WVU dominating their new conference, then they played TX Tech, and the season got ugly...

Yes, that ugly.  The Mountaineers are on a 4 game skid and 2-4 in the Big XII.  If they hope to salvage their once promising season, they'll have to win at least 2 of their last 3.  That should be reasonable since they play Iowa State and Kansas after the Sooners.  As for Oklahoma, HC Bob Stoops is arguably a victim of his own early success.  After guiding OU to the National Championship in 2000, Stoops has been trying to get back to that pinnacle ever since.  The Sooners still have a shot at a 10 win season and an outside chance at a BCS at large bid, but that's not good enough in Norman.  We'll see if Stoops can motivate his players even with nothing really left to play for.  40-35 Sooners.

Golden Gophers @ #14 Huskers - Minnesota is 6-4 and bowl eligible. That's a big deal for a program that finished 3-9 last year.  The Gophers rely on playing solid D and running the ball.  It's an old school formula that has worked well this season. The 'Huskers beat PSU last week with the help of some calls that went their way.  They may have won the game anyway, but when the refs take away a TD from your opponent, it's much easier to get the W.  The Huskers are in 1st place in the Big Ten Legends division and are looking to wrap up a spot in the Big Ten Championship and a possible BCS birth.  33 - 16 Huskers.

Golden Bears @ #16 Beavers - Cal HC Jeff Tedford is now firmly entrenched on the hot seat...

His Golden Bears are 2-6 in the Pac 12 and 3-8 overall.  Even a win in Corvallis this weekend will not be enough to save Tedford's job. The Golden Bears got killed by the Ducks last week 59-17. The Beavers may get caught looking ahead to their in state rivalry game with National Championship implications next week against the Ducks.  The Beavers were up 23-14 on Stanford last week before giving up two TD's in a 27-23 loss.  I'm not sure if Tedford has completely lost his team, but if not, this game is ripe for an upset.  30-27 Golden Bears.

#18 Trojans @ #17 Bruins - Let's take a moment to appreciate the Top Lane Kiffin blunders.  Once is a coincidence, twice is a pattern, but a continuous litany of dumb statements and even dumber moves makes you a...

It's rivalry week in LA!  And no, I don't mean Kobe vs. his teammates. Here's what I know about the two schools:
                                                                         USC

                                                               
                                                                    UCLA

The 7-3 Trojans and their plethora of 5 star recruits take on cross town rival UCLA.  The Trojans are loaded with talent but their HC never fails to screw it up. QB Matt Barkley will try to keep USC in the PAC 12 title hunt by throwing to two of the best WR's in the country, Marqise Lee & Robert Woods. At 8-2, UCLA actually has a better record than their over hyped rivals so far. UCLA's offense is geared toward RB Johnathan Franklin, but is equally dangerous through the air.  The Bruins have been up and down on defense, holding Arizona's spread attack to 10 points, then giving up 36 to Wazzu the following week.  If the Bruins D that played against Wazzu shows up, it'll be a long ride back to Westwood for UCLA.  37-27 USC.

Utah State @ #20 LA Tech - LA Tech is what RichRod aspires his Arizona program to be someday, a team with an unstoppable offense that plays no defense. The Bulldogs are 2nd in the nation, scoring 53.4 points per game, and 111th in the nation, giving up 36.2 points per game. The Bulldogs were in a shootout with the Texas State Bobcats last week, holding on for a 62-55 win.  Utah State has been holding teams to only 13.5 points per game this season.  Something has got to give.  Considering the Bulldogs put up 57 points against Texas A&M, I'm guessing it's the Utah State D that will give.  49 - 37 LA Tech.

Iowa @ #21 Michigan - Michigan won an OT thriller last week against Northwestern.  Down by 3 with under 30 seconds left and more than half the field in front of them, Wolverines QB Devin Gardner threw a bomb to WR Roy Roundtree that was first deflected by a Wildcats DB, and subsequently found by Roundtree as he fell to the ground for a 53 yard gain to set up the game tying FG with 2 seconds left on the clock.

Gardner then ran for a 1 yard TD in OT to seal the win for Michigan.  Iowa is bad.  They're on a 4 game skid, including a loss to Purdue last week.  The Boilermakers kicked the game winning FG as time expired to give them their first win in Iowa City in 20 years.  Iowa had the ball with just over a minute remaining but couldn't convert on a 4th & 3 as they were outside of FG range.  With only 17 ticks left, Purdue ran for 17 yards and threw for another 20 on 2 consecutive plays to set up the game winning FG.  The Wolverines should have an easier time this week and Iowa will have a lousier time.  34 - 13 Michigan.

#22 Rutgers @ Cincy - As Rutgers fans will tell you, their school was the birthplace of college football.  On Nov. 6, 1869 Rutgers beat Princeton 6-4.  The Rutgers didn't have another win until Greg Shiano took over the program. (I kid, I kid!) Rutgers lost to Kent State and then struggled with Army last week before coming out with a 28-7 win.  Despite their one loss record, they are not very good.  It's easy to win 8 games when you don't play anyone.  Cincy has also lost to a MAC team this year but has bounced back with two wins in a row.  The Bearcats are 3-1 in the Big East and must knock off the Scarlet Knights this week if they hope to get the Big East's undeserved automatic BCS bid.  27-20 Bearcats.


#23 Red Raiders @ #24 Cowboys - TX Tech needed double OT to put away Kansas last week.  Mind you that's a 1 win Kansas team that the Red Raiders struggled with. A win is a win, but Tech was clearly looking ahead to this game. TX Tech QB Seth Doege continues the Tech tradition of QB's who put up huge stats in college that won't do shit in the NFL.  The Cowboys in state rivalry game is next week when they visit Norman, OK.  Could this be the Cowboys week to get caught looking ahead?  37-34 Red Raiders

#25 Huskies @ Buffaloes - It's too bad college football doesn't use a relegation system, where the worst teams are relegated to a lower division every year and the top teams from the lower division get a crack at the big time.  I doubt Colorado or Kansas could go .500 against the better FCS teams.  It's amazing how bad Colorado is...

The Buffaloes are bad in every aspect of the game and it's not even close.  Despite being 6-4, the Huskies are ranked, which is due to their strength of schedule.  The Huskies have played LSU, Stanford, Oregon, USC and Oregon State this year.  The results are mixed, but at least they aren't afraid to play someone unlike the entire Big East.  UW should be able to close out with two wins and get into a nice bowl game.  A 9 win season is good season for HC Steve Sarkisian as he tries to build his program.  39 -3 Huskies.

Games of Note

Indiana @ PSU - This used to be true...

but HC Kevin Wilson has transformed the Hoosier offense into a pretty good passing attack. PSU's starting safety Malcolm Willis is nursing an injury this week and is day to day, and with an already leaky secondary, look for Indiana to pass early and often and get big chunks of yardage against the Nittany Lions.  What the Hoosiers have not done yet is plug their leaky defense.  PSU should be able to run the ball at will with bruising RB Zach Zwinak, and QB Matt McGloin should be able to find open WR's all day.  If the PSU D can create some turnovers it will be tough for Indiana to keep pace with PSU's offense.  43-31 Penn State.

Northwestern @ Michigan State - Northwestern lost a heart breaker to Michigan last week and will look to rebound against a Sparty squad that's come crashing back to Earth after their program's high water mark last season.  Sparty is 5-5, 2-4 in the Big ten and not playing for much of anything but pride at this point.  Sparty's offense is terrible, but their D is solid.  Northwestern's offense is good on the ground, terrible through the air.  With nothing to play for and a Northwestern squad hungry after last week's blown game, look for the Wildcats to pull this one out in East Lansing. 29-25 Northwestern.

Alabama A&M @ Auburn - Ooh!  A winnable game for Auburn!  Way to little, way to late for HC Gene Chizik.  His seat is all but burnt to the ground by now and he'll be looking for new employment next year.  It would be sweet if A&M could pull off this upset just to add insult to injury, but after the Tigers trounced New Mexico State a few weeks ago, it looks like Auburn still isn't as bad as FCS schools.  38-12 Auburn.

Tennessee @ Vanderbilt - The Commodores are bowl eligible and 6-4 overall! The Commodores won in dramatic fashion last week as QB Jordan Rodgers, yes, Aaron Rodgers little brother, hit WR Chris Boyd for a 26 yard game winning TD with 52 seconds left to notch a 27-26 win against Ole Miss. Vandy was down 23-6 in the 3rd quarter before rallying for the W.  The Volunteers were on the opposite side of drama last week, losing in OT to Mizzou 51-48.  The Vols allowed the game tying TD with 27 seconds remaining and then lost in OT.  HC Derek Dooley is in a race to the door with Gene Chizik.  Rumors have been floating around Knoxville that Jon Gruden is interested, which is hilarious considering his name is rumored for every single big time college vacancy since he left the NFL for the broadcast booth. Whomever the next coach is, Volunteers QB Tyler Bray wanted to make it clear that he's "getting paid to win games". Or, you know, on scholarship, but getting paid sounds more gangsta.  34 - 27 Vanderbilt.

Upset of the Week

Ohio State @ Wisconsin - The Buckeyes are undefeated and unranked thanks to the NCAA sanctions for lying to keep players eligible.  It doesn't matter to Urban Meyer though, he's not one to worry about sanctions.  W's are all that matter and he'll deliver the W's no matter what it takes. QB Braxton Miller continues to do his best Tebow impression, running at will on opponents and being barely adequate through the air.  Wisconsin has been up and down this season, losing in OT at home to Michigan State two weeks ago and then hanging 62 on Indiana on the road last week.  Which Badgers team shows up this week?  These are two similar teams.  Both have awful passing attacks and like to run the ball while playing solid D.  If this game were in Columbus, I'd give the Buckeyes the nod, but Camp Randall is a tough place to play as long as the Badgers decide to show up. Get ready Buckeyes....

Badgers 21-17!!