Friday, November 30, 2012

Week 14 Predictions

Championship Week!

Top 25 Action 

#2 Alabama v. #3 Georgia - the de facto national semi-final, aka the SEC Championship!
In SEC country, this is considered the national title game, with the winner given the honor of destroying Notre Dame in the BCS Championship.  'Bama's strength is running the ball, with a two prong attack led by Ed Lacy and supplemented by T.J. Yeldon.  Combined the duo have 1,848 yards and 24 TD's on the season.  Their the most dynamic duo since Ace & Gary...

Tide QB AJ McCarron had one bad game this year, throwing his only two INT's of the year in the loss to Texas A&M.  The 'Dogs have one of the best defenders in college football in LB Jarvis Jones, who has 10.5 sacks on the season.  If Jones and the Dogs defensive line can get pressure on McCarron and force turnovers, the Tide will have a long night.

On the flip side, GA QB Aaron Murray has 30 TD's and 7 INT's on the season and has been playing well.  His two worst games of the season were in GA's 35-7 loss at South Carolina and ironically, GA's 17-9 win in the Swamp.  GA has their own two headed RB monster, with freshmans Todd Gurley and Keith Marshall combining for 1,858 yards and 22 TD's on the season.  With both offenses evenly matched, this game will come down to which team avoids mistakes on offense and forces some turnovers on defense.  Can 'Bama head to back to back championship games or with the Bulldogs finally break through the SEC ceiling and get to the promised land?  24-20 Roll Tide!

#18 Texas @ #6 K State - K State win the Big XII with a win against the 'Horns.  ON the other hand, the Longhorns can play spoiler to K State and hand their bitter rivals Oklahoma a share of the Big XII title with a win.  It was only a few weeks ago K State was ranked #1 with a clear path to the national title game, then they ran into that Baylor offense and have had all of Thanksgiving to stew about it.

Texas is also coming off a 20-13 loss to TCU.  The Longhorns will be starting Case McCoy at QB this week.  The 'Horns hopes lie with their offense as their D has been subpar all season.  The 'Horns D won't be able to contain Wildcats QB Collin Klein and the Wildcats D is better than the 'Horns can handle.  37-24 K State!

#16 UCLA v. #8 Stanford - the PAC 12 Championship pits Stanford against UCLA.  I have a feeling we've seen this before...
A rematch of a game the Cardinal dominated just last week.  Was that game a showing of just how good Stanford is or was UCLA just tanking knowing the game didn't matter?

The Bruins attack is led by freshman QB Brett Hundley who has 3,234 yards, 26 TD's and 10 INT's on the season to go along with 282 yards and 8 more TD's on the ground.  When UCLA runs though, they turn to RB Johnathan Franklin, one of the best backs in college football.  Franklin has amassed 1506 yards and 11 TD's on the season.

Since losing to Notre Dame in OT on a controversial non-call, Stanford has reeled off 6 wins in a row, led by a dominating defense.  RB Stepfan Taylor leads the Cardinal offense with 1364 yards and 11 TD's on the year. I expect UCLA HC Jim Mora Jr. to have something on tap for the Stanford D that he didn't show last week, but will it be enough to solve the Cardinal defense over the course of 60 minutes?  30-27 Stanford.

#11 Sooners v. Horned Frogs - Conference Championships make strange bedfellows...
The Sooners only shot for an outright Big XII title is for their hated rivals Texas Longhorns to beat K State.  OU has won the Big XII title in every even number year since HC Bob Stoops took the helm.

TCU has been up and down all season but can't seem to play consistently well against better competition.  They've beaten some ranked teams and lost to some unranked teams.  The Horned Frogs can play spoiler and maybe better position themselves for a bowl game, but other than that, this game has no implications for TCU.  31 - 20 Sooners.

#12 Nebraska v. Wisconsin - The Big Ten Championship game is a bit weaker this year thanks to the NCAA's heavy hand.  Both Ohio State and Penn State, who finished 1 and 2 in the Leaders division, are ineligible for this game. Instead of an undefeated Ohio State squad or a Penn State team that's the feel good story of the year, viewers will be treated to a Badgers team that finished 4-4 in the Big Ten and 7-5 overall.  The Badgers passing game is moribund.  They've started 3 different QB's this season looking for some consistency out of the position.  The latest being Senior Curt Phillips, who led the Badgers to the game tying TD with 18 seconds left against Penn State last week, only to lose the game in OT on a missed FG.  The Badgers have RB's Montee Ball and James White on offense and that's about it.  The two have combined for 2221 yards and 26 TD's on the season.  If the Badgers can't run the ball they're in trouble.

The Huskers are also a running team, but their leader is dynamic QB Taylor Martinez, who's slim build doesn't look like he should be a running QB.  Martinez has rushed for over 800 yards and put up 8 TD's on the season. RB Rex Burkhead has been injured most of the year, appearing in only 6 games, but he's looking to get on the field more now that he's somewhat healthy.

If you like to watch games where the forward pass is avoided like the plague then this is the game for you.
 34 - 20 Huskers!

#13 Florida State v. GA Tech - So who knew FSU co-eds were so hot, they can't even take their eyes off themselves long enough to put their face paint on right...
How great is the ACC Championship?  GA Tech was already granted a waiver to play in a bowl game with a losing record, assuming, probably accurately, that they will lose to FSU.  So you get Florida State, who will most likely go to the Orange Bowl to play Louisville, playing GA Tech, who will either REALLY upset the BCS cart or play in some crappy bowl most of us never heard of sometime before Christmas.  The ACC Championship, because it's contractually obligated to happen...

FSU is 10-2, and would be 11-1 if they didn't forget to play the second half against NC State.  The only legitimate loss was against Florida to end the regular season.  'Noles QB EJ Manuel has played well this season notching just under 3000 yards to go with 22 TD's and 9 INT's.  FSU is 8th in the nation in points per game with 41.5 and 7th in points given up, at 15.1.

GA Tech abhors the pass like Rich Rod abhors defense.
The Yellowjackets run the triple option offense, meaning they'll opt to run the ball on 1st, 2nd, and 3rd downs. If they could run the punt they'd do that too.  The triple option offense works well against undisciplined defenses, which FSU is not.  The triple option offense also keeps the ball in the offenses hands longer than a traditional offense since it will keep the clock rolling.  Hence, FSU will have less possession and less chances to score, at least in theory.  The triple option offense...

What?
My bad.

Anyway... FSU will shut down GA Tech's running game, which shuts down GA Tech. 34 - 13 FSU.

Nicholls State v. #15 Oregon State - This game was supposed to be the Beavers first game of the year, but due to Hurricane Isaac shutting down Nicholls State's campus, it was pushed to the end of the year. The Beavers turned the ball over 6 times against Oregon last week and lost 48-24.  The Beavers have no shot at the BCS but the season should still be considered a success.  OSU can take out their frustrations on the Colonels who are just looking for their paycheck.  49-7 Beavers.

#21 N Illinois v. #17 Kent State - Shockingly, the MAC Championship has BCS implications!
If a champion from the mid-major conferences is ranked in the top 16 and above a champion from an automatic qualifying conference in the final BCS standings, the mid major champ receives an automatic BCS bid. The MAC is in the mid major group and the Big East has zero teams ranked in the BCS standings.  What does this mean?  If Kent State wins, they'll probably crash the BCS party. Everybody hates a party crasher, they break shit and drink all your beer...

Northern Illinois is on an 11 game winning streak, the only blemish on their record being a 1 point loss to open the season against Iowa.  The Huskies offense like to run the ball and play solid D.  That seems to be a theme for winning teams this year.

Kent State is on a 10 game winning streak, having not lost since getting crushed by Kentucky 47-14 in their second game of the year.  Yes, KENTUCKY.

A team that lost to Kentucky might play in a BCS game.  You have to love college football.  The Golden Flashes like to run the ball even more than Northern Illinois.  Kent has two 1,000 yard rushers in Dri Archer and Trayion Durham, whom both have 14 TD's.  Kent's D isn't bad but not as good as Northern Illinois'.  29-24 Huskies.

#20 Boise State v. Nevada - Boise is looking for a share of the MWC title in just it's second season in the league.  The Broncos offense is not as good as past teams, but their D has been solid all season, giving up only 14.4 points per game.  Nevada is looking to play spoiler and has already accepted a bid to the New Mexico Bowl.  Wolfpack RB Stefpon Jefferson is 6th in the NCAA with 1564 yards rushing and needs 148 yards to set the single season MWC rushing record.  This will be a tall order against Boise tough D.  34-24 Boise.

#23 Okie State v. Baylor - Like defense?  Then this game is not for you.  Look for both teams to score early and often. If this were a soccer game, the score would be 3-2, yes, THAT much scoring.


The Cowboys never trailed the Sooners last week until the final score of OT.  Okie State gave up the game tying TD with 4 seconds left, then got the ball first but could only manage a FG in OT.  The Sooners then completed their comeback with an 18 yard TD run on their 1st OT possession.  The Cowboys D will have to refocus this week as they take on a Baylor offense treats scoring like Lindsay Lohan treats arrests, really it's the only thing they consistently do well.  Bears WR Terrance Williams is leading the nation in receiving yards with 1693 thus far.  With the third and fifth highest scoring teams in college football on the field in this game, looks for the scoreboard to light up early and often.  55-52 Bears.

Games of Note 

Louisville v. Rutgers - Since I'm late to post this week, and frankly, does anyone really care about the Big East?, this game is already over.  Louisville won 20-17 and will get the Big East's BCS bid.  Cardinals QB Teddy Bridgewater could barely walk and couldn't take a snap from under center but outplayed his healthy counterpart, Rutgers QB Gary Nova.  Bridgewater showed why he's considered an NFL prospect, throwing for 263 yards and two TD's.  If Cincy wins against UConn this week, it will create a 4 way tie atop the Big East between Louisville, Syracuse, Rutgers and Cincy.  The highest ranked team in the final BCS standings will get the bid, which looks to be Louisville.  So congrats to the Orange Bowl, they get to pit two conferences that may not exist much longer in a game that nobody will want to watch.


UCF v. Tulsa - The Conference USA Championship, or what it will be known as in a few years after all the CUSA teams move to the Big Least, the Big East Championship.  A couple 9-3 teams with some bad losses on their record square off for your viewing pleasure.  Tulsa beat Central Florida two weeks ago in Oklahoma 23-21.  Both teams score around 35 points per game and have much better running games than they do passing games.  The Knights have a slightly better D, so I'll give them the edge.  26 - 21 Knights.

Upset of the Week

Kansas @ West Virginia - The Mountaineers loathe defense.  But damn that offense is fun to watch.  And well, Kansas HC Charlie Weis's decisive schematic advantage has to come into play at some point... right?  Get ready West Virginia!
or just...

45-42 Jayhawks!


No comments:

Post a Comment