Friday, September 21, 2012

Week 4 Predictions

Week 4 already... why does college football season have to go by so fast?  It's like when stores start putting out seasonal items 2 months in advance.  Seriously, Wegman's had fall stuff out in the beginning of August.  C'mon!  What's the rush? 

I get it you want to get a jump on competitors, but when it's snowing and 20 degrees out in February, the last thing I'm looking to buy is a beach umbrella.  Likewise, when it's 90 and humid as hell, I'm not really looking for a pumpkin flavored coffee.  Speaking of pumpkin, are there no other flavors that we associate with autumn other than pumpkin?  EVERYTHING is pumpkin flavored! When is the last time you got hungry and said to yourself... "I could really go for a pumpkin right now."  One good thing about the pumpkin craze.... the plethora of pumpkin beers available!

Let's talk some football....

Top 25 Action
Florida Atlantic @ #1 'Bama - How dominant have the Tide been this year?  Alabama has outscored its opponents 128-14 and scored 94 points since the defense last gave up a point, with 14 seconds left in the third quarter in the opener against Michigan.  Still, Nick Saban will not be happy until his team is so dominant the BCS agrees to let his 1st team Defense play his 1st team Offense in the national championship game.  Forget a rematch against LSU or beating up a Pac 12 school, the real national championship game is Alabama v. Crimson Tide.  Two Sun Belt teams have beaten the mighty SEC this year.  Could the Owls pull off the upset of the century? According to Owls DE Cory Henry, yes!  According to everyone else, not so much. 45 - 0 Roll Tide.

#2 Tigers @ Tigers - Is "Tigers" the most common nickname in sports?  Were there mass Tiger sightings in the south back in the day or something?  Surprisingly, Tigers is only the 3rd most used nickname in college sports. The top two?  Eagles & Panthers.  Auburn escaped with a 31-28 win in OT against the fearless Warhawks last week.  LSU dominated Idaho 63-14.  Can Auburn stop LSU's 13th ranked rushing attack?  Can LSU get anything going through the air?  Can an 83 year old do a keg stand while tailgating?  Auburn could be 1-3, and 0-2 in the SEC if they can't find a way to pull off the upset at home.  37-17 LSU.

#22 Wildcats @ #3 Mighty Ducks - The desert heat seems to agree with RichRod.  After almost stumbling in their opening game against Toledo, the Wildcats have put up 59 and 56 points in the last two weeks respectively.  In fact, RichRod's much maligned D pitched a shut out last week against South Carolina State.  Meanwhile in Eugene, the Ducks are averaging a video game like 54 points per game. As impressive as that is, it's not nearly the best offensive performance in Oregon last week, check out the kid that put up 634 Yards, 10 TD's in one game!!!  Freshman QB Marcus Mariota has been outstanding, completing 75% of his passes and tossing 8 TD's with only 1 INT.  What do you think?  Last team with the ball wins?  52-49 Ducks. 

#10 Clemson @ #4 Seminoles - Jimbo Fisher's Seminoles have only allowed 3 points total this year.  That's right, through 3 games, the 'Noles have only given up a FG.  Their offense has been averaging 58.7 points per game too!  Are these 'Noles for real?  It's still hard to tell.  They played two FCS schools, which is always nice for padding stats.  Last week they destroyed the Demon Deacons 52-0.  This is FSU's first real test of the year. And unlike FSU's academics, they'll actually have to show up, and this class is not an easy A.  Clemson is a bit more battle tested, having beaten Auburn in their season opener.  The Tigers run a balanced offense that is one of the best in the nation.  Sophomore Sammy Watkins is back from his two game suspension.  Watkins blew up the 'Noles as a Freshman to the tune of 7 catches, 141 yards and 2 TD's.  Will Sammy be able to repeat that performance or will the 'Noles D continue to dominate?  34-24 Florida State. 

Commodores @ #5 Bulldogs - Vandy sits at 1-2 but has played tough in both losses.  The Commodores D has been steady, giving up 36 points through 3 games, including a tough 17-13 loss to open the season against South Carolina.  If Vandy can just figure out how to put some more points on the board, they could go bowling this season.  Vandy is in for a rough test this week against a Bulldogs offense that is averaging 47.3 points per game, good for 10th in the nation.  Granted those points came against relatively easy opponents, unless you consider Mizzou to be a tough game, which the SEC doesn't.  Respect must be earned, not given. Look for the Dawgs to struggle for a half before breaking through.  34-10 Georgia. 

#15 K-State @ #6 Sooners - As I said before, K State is a feast or famine program, and this year they are feasting like a honey badger on a snake.

Last week they had a hiccup in the first half against the Mean Green from North Texas, leading only 14-7 at the half, but turned it on in the second half and won 35-21.  Collin Klein has been one of the best QB's in college football thus far.  With all due respect to UTEP, this is the Sooners first real game of the year.  The Miners put a scare into the Sooners 24-7 to open the season.  OU then rolled over Florida A&M last week, but K State is no Florida A&M.  Can Landry Jones throw his hat in the Heisman ring, or will the Sooner faithful grow even more restless with Stoops?  30-24 Wildcats. 

Tigers @ #7 Gamecocks - Mizzou QB James Franklin didn't play last week because he refused to take a cortisone shot to relieve pain in his shoulder.  This lead to people questioning the QB's toughness, as if refusing to take a cortisone shot somehow makes you less of a man.  As Franklin explained, he avoids taking any pain killing medication, including aspirin. In today's football mad world, players are expected to play through injuries, and that includes taking pain killing drugs to do so.  What seems to be lost on fans is that cortisone simply masks the pain, which can lead to further injury.  I'm not saying one way or the other what Franklin should have done, but it's his body, and if he doesn't want to take a shot and can't play otherwise, that's his choice.  It's easy for fans to sit back on their coach with with beer and pizza and criticize the kid...
But this guy isn't putting his body at risk on every play and sustaining injuries that can last a lifetime.  Then again, with all those cheese curls in that bowl, maybe he is.  The Gamecocks QB is dealing with an injury of his own but Connor Shaw is expected to play.  Expect to see a heavy does of RB Marcus Lattimore as he rounds back into shape from injury. He is arguably one of the best backs in college football and the Gamecocks will need him to step up as they enter SEC play.  Do the Tigers start 0-2 in their new conference?  All signs point to yes.  34-20 South Carolina.   

Terrapins @ #8 Mountaineers - Geno Smith is on fire like a couch on a Saturday night in Morgantown! Anyone headed to Morgantown this week should use extreme caution when driving in...
G Smith has a ridiculous 88% completion rate to go along with 9 TD's and 0 INT's this  year, and even more stunning, he has yet to take a sack!  His Heisman campaign is in full swing.  Maryland has been a schizophrenic team this  year, almost losing to William & Mary, blowing out Temple, and getting dominated by UConn.  Just in case the Terrapins are ever good, and they actually win a big game, and people show up, and care that they win, and decide to storm the field, and head toward the goal posts... Maryland installed hydraulic goal posts.  Better to be safe than sorry?  Do the Terrapins snap at the Mountaineers or hide in their shells this week?  48-17 WVU.  Light 'em up!

#18 Michigan @ #11 Fightin' Irish - It's on like donkey kong in South Bend!  The Irish are 3-0 after a dominating defensive performance against Sparty in East Lansing last week.  The Irish offense hasn't gotten in gear yet, but the D has stepped up.  Say what you will about Brian Kelly's motivational tactics...
but he has his team playing well.  Irish fans are already proclaiming "WE ARE BACK BABY!  WE ARE BACK!!! WOO HOO!!" At 3-0 and with a tough schedule ahead, that may be premature.  D-Rob is like no other player the Irish D has faced this year.  He's literally a one man wrecking crew on offense and a threat to take it to the house on any play.  As 'Bama showed, if you shut down D-Rob, you shut down Michigan.  The question is, will the Irish D be able to contain that Wolverine?  27-20 Go Blue!

Cal @ #13 Trojans - Poor Lane Kiffin.  He was so upset that his team was yet again out played and out coached, he couldn't even talk about it.  Kiffin set a record for shortest press conference, clocking a mere 28 seconds. The lesson the media should learn?  Don't question Kiffin after yet another loss to Stanford that dashes his teams title hopes despite all the hype.  Now who will the talking heads at ESPN gush over outside of the SEC?  Who cares.
The Golden Bears gave Ohio State all they could handle in Columbus last week, coming up just short.  But if ever there was a moral victory for a team, this was it.  They outplayed the Buckeyes most of the game, and if they play with that same fire this week, Kiffin may set a new record for shortest press conference next week.  And oh yeah, all those play makers I was so high on last week, Barkley, Woods, & Lee, got shut down by Stanford.  Amazing what a team that takes pride in playing defense can do to players that looked unstoppable in previous weeks.  34-30 USC.  

Kentucky @ #14 Gators - Good news for Kentucky fans, basketball season is a little over a month away.  Will Joker Phillips still be the Wildcats HC by that time?  Are the Kentucky fans afraid of clowns? Has there ever been a creepier plea to rally a fan base?  Kentucky is reeling after a 32-31 OT loss to the in state RIVAL Western Kentucky Hilltoppers from the mighty Sun Belt!  WKU went Boise on the Wildcats ass, pulling out a HB throwback to the QB for the winning 2 point conversion. This week they must somehow pick themselves up and head to the swamp to take on a Gators squad that keeps getting better every week. Florida has won 2 road games in the SEC already, and finally get to play at home.  The Gators D has been solid all year, and the offense has been progressing under QB Jeff Driskel.  Fun fact, the last time Kentucky beat Florida in football, Ronald Regan was President and this Volleyball movie was the Top flick at the box office...

37-10 Gators. JEAH BRO
UAB @ #16 Buckeyes - UAB is bad in every facet of the game.  The Buckeyes were outplayed last week at home by the Golden Bears, but still came away with a 35-28 win. And in the "I'm surprised it took that long" department, Urban Meyer has declared Buckeyes QB Braxton Miller has more talent than Tebow.   Miller responded by dropping to one knee, putting his fist to his forehead and thanking the Buckeye boosters for "supporting" him. Braxton will earn his pay this week against the Blazers.  49-0 Ohio State.

Cavaliers @ #17 Horned Frogs - A week after the Cavaliers prevailed when PSU kicker Sam Ficken did his best Scott Norwood impression, the Cavs went out and crapped the bed against GA Tech, giving up 56 points to the Yellow Jackets. This week they head to the Lonestar State to take on TCU, who managed a measly 20 points against a terrible Kansas team last week, but only gave up 6.  The Cavaliers could be underrated while the Horned Frogs are over rated.  30-17 TCU. 

Beavers @ #19 Bruins -The Beavers have only played one game this year, their 10-7 upset of the Badgers.  That's quite a bit of rest for a team heading into the 4th week of the season.  UCLA has been on a roll. Heisman candidate Johnathan Franklin leads the 5th ranked ground game averaging over 300 yards per game.  The aerial assault is not far behind, ranking 19th in the nation.  Even the Bruins D has improved this year under first year coach Jim Mora, Jr.  UCLA has a favorable schedule, with their two toughest games against Stanford and USC coming at the end of the year.  Could the Bruins be crashing the BCS party?  Can someone in the media ask Jim Mora Jr about the BCS in the hopes that we get a "BCS!?  BCS!? Are you kidding me!?  BCS!?" quote form him ala Jim Sr.  31-17 Bruins.

#20 Louisville @ Florida Int'l - Teddy Bridgewater is one of the best QB's nobody has ever heard of, probably because he plays for Louisville, and Louisville plays in the Big Least.  Take notice, because Bridgewater has been lighting it up for 3 games now with 855 yards on an 81% completion percentage with 5 TD's and 0 INT's.  The Cardinals D almost blew it last week, giving up 20 fourth quarter points to the Tar Heels, but hung on for a 39-34 win.  HC Mario Cristobal has taken the Panthers from perennial doormat to... slightly less of a doormat.  His team still can't stop anybody. If Louisville knows nothing else, at least they know how to keep it classy while tailgating.


  54-17 Cardinals.

Directional Michigan @ #21 Sparty - Sparty got stomped by Notre Dame at home last week.

And just like that, Le'Veon Bell's Hesiman campaign is over.  It was only a matter of time before Sparty went back to being Sparty, that is a middle of the pack program that can't sustain success.  But by the way the Sparty fans brag, you'd think they were 'Bama.  45-10 Michigan State.

South Alabama @ #23 Miss State - To pledge the SEC fraternity, each school must be investigated by the NCAA, and Mississippi State desperately wants to be part of that frat! As they say in SEC country... the south will rise again, or is it "If you're not cheating, you're not trying"? If there is one thing the south knows how to do right, it's BBQ and tailgating. I'm no stranger to college football tailgating, and I'd put my team's tailgating up against any other school, but from the first hand accounts I have heard about southern tailgating, it's an experience unlike any other.  The Jaguars are new to big time southern tailgating, having just joined the FBS, and it will show this week.  45-3 Bulldogs.
 
BYU @ #24 Boise - Boise is coming off a convincing win against Miami(OH) after getting beat by Sparty to open the season.  You have to say this about Boise, they are not afraid to play anyone, anywhere, anytime.  BYU lost the Holy War to in state rival Utah last week.  BYU put up a valiant come back attempt in the 4th quarter scoring two TD's, but couldn't finish it off, losing 24-21.  Boise's D has been keeping them in games this year while their offense struggles.  Look for a low scoring game.  17-14 Broncos.

Edit: This game was played last night before I published this week's predictions and Boise won 7-6, which is an ever lower score than I predicted. Obviously.  

Idaho State @ #25 Nebraska - The Idaho State Bengals are 1-1 this year... who did they beat?  Black Hills State University.  Who?  Exactly. Some fun facts about BHSU, they were admitted to NCAA Div II athletics in 2010.  BHSU is located in Spearfish, South Dakota.  Their biggest rival is South Dakota School of Mines & Technology.  So there you have it, Black Hills State football exists.  The 'Huskers got back on track with a 42-13 drubbing of the Red Wolves last week.  This week should be even easier for the 'Huskers.  49-10.

Games of Note

Bowling Green @ Hokies - The Hokies didn't just shit the bed against Pitt last week, they had explosive diarrhea and woke up next to another dude.  VA Tech lost to previously winless Pitt 35-17 and the game wasn't even as close as that score indicates.  I don't know what's more embarrassing.... losing to Pitt or Gary Busey pole dancing...
Strip clubs are all fun and games until Gary Busey gets on the pole. 

Look for the Hokies to lick their wounds and bounce back against Bowling Green 34-20 this week.

Temple @ Penn State This is Temple's Super Bowl.  Win this game, and the previous 41 game losing streak to the Nittany Lions means nothing.  They can even lay claim to being the best program in PA if they pull this one out.  The Owls like to run the ball, with dual threat QB Chris Coyer leading the attack.  They better be able to run, because Coyer is only completing 41% of his passes this year.  This game will be weakness on weakness, as PSU's secondary is atrocious.  They have consistently allowed teams to convert 3rd and 4th & long this year.  The Owls are coming off a loss to Maryland last week, while Penn State finally got HC Bill O'Brien his first win, dominating Navy start to finish 34-7.  The Lions have improved every week, but are still not that good. When is the last time Penn State had ZERO rushing TD's through 3 games?  It doesn't help that PSU is down to it's 3rd and 4th string RB's due to transfers and injuries, but still.  ZERO! Fortunately the revamped passing offense has been WAY better, with true soph WR Allen Robinson leading the way with 24 receptions for 322 yards and 4 TD's.  PSU QB Matt McGloin has even looked pretty good so far.  It's amazing what a good coach can do for an offense.  Now, if the Nittany Lions D can ever stop anyone on 3rd down, they have a shot at a winning season.  27-17 Penn State. 

Hurricanes @ Yellow Jackets - If the Hurricanes play a game, and no Fans Show Up in Miami... does the NCAA still sanction them for violations? 

The Hurricanes held the first ever "Seat Out" in college football history.  Fans were encouraged to dress as empty chairs for their game against Bethune Cookman.  As you can see, the promotion was a resounding success.  A week after the team failed to show up against Kansas State, which lead to a former Miami player going on an epic rant after the Hurricanes loss, they took the field and beat Bethune Cookman 38-10.  Is there anything funnier than former "Da U" players ranting about their once proud program?  Do they understand the irony of calling their University "Da U"? Will the fans and/or team show up this week against the Yellow Jackets?  GA Tech pummelled Virginia last week 56-20.  The GA Tech offense is ranked 116th in passing and 3rd in rushing yardage per game.  That's as unbalanced as Amanda Bynes behind the wheel of a car. 35-14 Yellow Jackets.

Rutgers @ Arkansas - Oh John L. Smith.  How college football missed you.  We love you on that sideline.  We NEED you on that sideline.  Please win out this year so we can have more of you.  The Arkansas coach owes $27.5M after declaring bankruptcy. Which begs the question, how the hell did John L. Smith get $27.5M in the first place? QB Tyler Wilson called out his team for quitting, and the fans are turning on each other. On one side, the fans support former coach Bobby Petrino who they believe should not have been fired for having an affair with an employee he hired and then lying about it.  Because, you know, winning football games is more important than being faithful to your wife and telling the truth. #culture  On the other hand, fans think John L. Smith should be given a chance.  Just kidding, nobody likes John L. Smith.  Wilson will be back under center this week as the undefeated Scarlet Knights head to Fayetville.  How good is Rutgers?  Hard to tell since they haven't played anyone yet.  How embarrassing would it be for the SEC Razorbacks to lose to a Sun Belt and Big Least team in the same season?  24-20 Rutgers.


UTEP @ Wisky - Things are not good in Madison.  Their plan to bring in another team's QB every year after the success of Russell Wilson last year has exploded like cheese soup left in the microwave too long. The Badgers are benching Maryland transfer QB Danny O'Brien. Joe Stave, a former walk on, will start for the Badgers this week.  Montee Ball has already kissed his Heisman hopes goodbye.  Now the Badgers are just trying to win the Big Ten Leaders division, which shouldn't be difficult with Ohio State and Penn State being ineligible.  The Badgers narrowly escaped with a 16-14 win at home against Utah State after the Aggies missed a last second FG.  UTEP played OU and Ole Miss tough before finally getting into the win column last week against New Mexico State 41-28.  I can see this game being close for a half before the Badgers offense gets it going.  The Badgers D should have no problem handling UTEP.  24-10 Badgers.

Colorado @ Wazzu -How bad are things in Boulder?  Fresno State was up 55-7.... AT THE HALF!  The Bulldogs went on to win 69-14.  The Buffs surrendered in every conceivable way, giving up 664 yards total, including a 94 yard run, and 35 points in the 1st quarter alone.  There hasn't been a beat down like this since I dominated the #2 ranked minor circuit fighter Glass Joe in Mike Tyson's Punch Out!

To say Buffs HC Jon Embree is on the hot seat would be an understatement along the lines of saying jihadists aren't fans of Salman Rushdie.  The Colorado program is in complete disarray.  Meanwhile in Pullman, HC Mike Leach is putting his stamp on the Wazzu program.  The Cougars rank 28th in passing yards per game, and 121st in rushing.  Wazzu may not have the horses to compete in the triple crown  yet, but they'll show up every week and give you a race.  45-13 Wazzu. 

Upset of the Week

Baylor @ Warhawks - LA Monroe almost did it again last week, losing to Auburn in OT.  The Warhawks are playing inspired football so far this young season.  QB Kolton Browning is still flying under the radar despite the heroics of the last two games against the SEC.  If the Warhawks D ever learns how to stop anyone, they could be looking at a decent bowl game this year.  So far so good in the post RGIII era at Baylor.  Granted the Bears two wins have come against terrible teams, but it's good to have some wins to get the team some confidence.  This week will be much tougher.  If the Warhawks D can come close to stopping a dynamic Bears aerial attack, they have a fighting chance.  37-34 Warhawks. 


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